AXPZ20 KNHC 191526
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1526 UTC Wed Sep 19 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E centered near 26.3N 110.9W at
19/1500 UTC or 30 nm NE of Loreto Mexico moving N at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Associated scattered
moderate to strong convection is in the Gulf of California and
adjacent areas from 23N to 29N. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 20N to 24.5N between 110W and 112.5W.
The depression only has 12 hours or less over water and is
forecast to dissipate by 36 hours. Even so, heavy rainfall, with
5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches
may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near
the track of the depression. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 11N93W to 07N110W to
09N118W, then resumes from 16N120W to 13.5N130W to 11N135W. The
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 11N135W to
09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 03N to
the E of 83W, including the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10N between 88W and
91W, from 12.5N to 16.5N between 94W and 104W, including the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, from 08N to 11N between 100W and 108W, from 07N
to 11N between 112W and 115W, and also from 12N to 16N between
120W and 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for details on newly
formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E located in the southern
Gulf of California.
Elsewhere high pressure NW of the area supports moderate to fresh
NW winds W of Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate
winds offshore to the S of there. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the
offshore waters W of the peninsula.
A locally tight pressure gradient will support pulsing nocturnal
northerly winds to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
early this morning, and again tonight into early Thursday
morning, with moderate nocturnal winds thereafter.
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere, except
moderate to fresh near Cabo Corrientes mainly at night the next
couple of nights.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Offshore nocturnal winds will pulse to moderate to fresh near the
Gulf of Papagayo Thu night.
Cross-equatorial SW swell with seas of 4 to 7 ft reaching the
coast of Central America will gradually subside during the
Otherwise, the monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 11N
during the next several days, with mainly gentle winds N of the
axis, and moderate S of the axis.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Elongated surface troughing extends from near the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula to 16N120W where the monsoon trough
continues SW-W from there. Ridging extends from NW to SE across
the waters N of the trough and monsoon trough. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are N of the convergence zone with moderate
to locally fresh S of the troughing. The trade winds are
supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft across the W central waters. These
seas will subside to less than 8 ft by the end of the week as the
ridge and troughing break down allowing for the pressure gradient