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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1500 UTC Sat Dec 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N83W to 06N108W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N108W to 12N121W. It resumes from 12N124W to
11N131W. It resumes from 11N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted from 04N to 07N between 95W and 102W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 12N
to 16N between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 122W and 127W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 12N between
130W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, local drainage flow will support 
fresh to strong winds through late this morning before 
diminishing. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of 
Mexico Mon night. The front will shift southward across the 
western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Tue. High 
pressure will build southward across the Sierra Madre Oriental in
the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between this 
building high pressure, and the equatorial trough in the eastern 
north Pacific will usher in the next gale force gap wind event 
Tue night. This will be a strong gap wind event, with wind speeds
possibly reaching minimal storm force, and seas building in 
excess of 20 ft on Wed. 

High pressure of 1033 mb centered near 36N146W will shift 
eastward over the next 24 hours. This will tighten the pressure 
gradient and strengthen winds over the waters off Baja California
Norte tonight into Sun. The area of high pressure will weaken, 
and winds will diminish over this area early next week.

Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the waters off
Baja California. Seas of 10 to 12 ft will prevail over the waters
off Baja California Norte. Seas in excess of 8 ft will continue
across the waters N of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas will start
to subside early next week, and falling below 8 ft Tue. A fresh
set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja
California Norte Wed night.  

High pressure building over the Great Basin north of the area 
will support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of 
California Mon night through Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo
through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south
to southwest monsoon flow will persist across the offshore 
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, while light 
to gentle flow will dominate across the Gulf of Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends from high pressure of 1033 mb centered 
near 36W146W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the surface ridge, and two areas of low
pressure,centered near 12N123W and 11N134W, continue to support 
fresh to strong trade winds across the waters from 11N and 20N 
and west of 120W. The areas of low pressure, as well as the area
of high pressure, will weaken over the next couple of days. This
will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish the strong winds 
across the area. 

NW swell is propagating across the forecast waters, with seas in
excess of 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 115W. Seas
associated to the swell will gradually subside the next few days,
falling below 8 ft over much of the forecast waters early next 
week. A fresh set of NW swell will move into the northwest waters
Mon morning. This swell will bring seas to near 15 ft over the 
waters N of 25N and W of 125W by midweek.

$$
AL