Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 260241

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to
move by north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
High pressure will surge in behind the front across eastern
Mexico and northerly winds will rapidly funnel through the
Chivela Pass with gale force winds forecast beginning Wed evening
in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will approach strong gale early
Thu and then again Thu night. The gale force winds are forecast 
to persist through early Sat morning. Very large seas will build 
with these winds with seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well 
west-southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, while peak seas 
will be around 20 ft Thu night through Fri.

Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale 
Warning: A strong cold front is moving across the region with
gale force winds in the northern Gulf of California from 29N to
31N, and also offshore of Baja California Norte. These winds will
persist overnight, diminishing by early Tue. Seas will reach 
8-11 ft in the northern Gulf of California tonight.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both
of these gale warnings.

Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front 
is moving across Baja California tonight, with large long- 
period NW swell west of Baja California through Tue night. 
Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja 
California Norte through tonight. There is a significant risk of 
hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through Tue 
evening. Please refer to your local statements issued by your 
national meteorological service for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 08N75W to 04N90W to 05N100W to 05N112W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N117W to 06N126W to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 98W and

A low pressure area of 1008 mb is located between the termination
of the monsoon trough and commencement of the ITCZ near 05N144W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
07N to 10N between 111W and 117W.


Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for west of Baja California Norte and the Gulf
of California, a Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as 
well as details on a very large NW swell event west of Baja 
California Norte.

Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N, except
fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes, and fresh to strong
elsewhere north of Punta Eugenia. South of 18N, gentle winds 
prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California 
Norte and 5-8 ft north of 18N to Cabo San Lazaro, 3 ft or less in
the central and southern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft south of

Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern 
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed.
Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California
Thu through the end of the week.


Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the  
Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong Wed night 
through Sat night with building seas by the end of the week into 
the weekend. Seas will peak between 8-10 ft at that time.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Panama through tonight, and then again Thu night 
through Fri night. Seas will pulse to 5-6 ft the next couple of
days, and then 6-8 ft Thu night through Sat night.

Gentle to moderate winds will continue to prevail elsewhere.

Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region will spread across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night.


High pressure of 1035 mb northwest of the area near 35N142W
extends a ridge well to the east-southeast to near Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade
winds north of the ITCZ to around 25N and west of 120W. Seas in 
this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E 
wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is forecast to remain in
place through Tue night.

A large NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across 
the area behind a strong cold front which extends from 27.5N113W
to 23N125W, with seas currently 8-20 ft north of 25N, highest 
east of 130W. The swell will spread southward across much of the
forecast area north of 15N between 110W and 135W while the cold
front gradually dissipates.

The next strong cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed with 
fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through early 
Thu, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large northerly swell 
will accompany this system, propagating southward across the 
entire area through the end of the week. Winds and seas diminish
somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Jan-2021 02:42:06 UTC