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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 190305

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
052 UTC Sat Jan 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 04.5N92W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04.5N92W to 01N104W to 01N111W to 04N119W. It 
then resumes from 05N122W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 13N between 
108W and 116W.


Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: The next gap wind event over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to start Sat night as a 
strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the 
isthmus of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind the front 
will provide a tight gradient over the area, and bring an 
increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds 
will rapidly increase to near gale force Sat evening, and reach 
gale force later Sat night. Winds will further increase to storm 
force Sun. Winds will diminish below storm force Sun night, and 
below gale force Mon. Seas will peak near 25 ft on Sunday during 
the period of storm force winds. Swell generated from this event 
will produce a large plume of 12 ft seas that will extend as far 
as 700 NM SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon. Marine interests 
transiting through the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into early 
next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and 
take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over 
the affected waters. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. 



See special features for more details on the upcoming storm 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh north to northwest winds are along 
the offshore waters off Baja California. Long period NW swell is
producing seas of 13 to 15 ft over the waters off Baja 
California Norte. This swell will bring dangerous surf and large 
breaking waves across portions of Baja California Norte through 
Sat. Seas in the 8 to 13 ft range prevail over the remaining open
waters. The swell will slowly subside through the weekend, 
subsiding below 8 ft by late Sun night. A new set of NW swell 
will once again propagate into the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte Mon. This swell will spread across the remainder
of the offshore waters of Baja California through the middle of 
next week. 

Gulf of California: High pressure building over the Great Basin 
north of the area will support fresh to strong northwest winds 
extending the length of the Gulf through Sat. The strength, 
fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights to 8 
ft in the southern Gulf of California by Sat night. Winds and 
seas will diminish by Sun as the high pressure weakens and shifts
to the east.


The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and the equatorial trough will maintain strong gap winds across 
Papagayo and Panama through early Sat. Gap winds will diminish 
Sat and Sat night as high pressure north of the region shifts 
eastward ahead of a cold front, and helps weaken the pressure 
gradient. New high pressure will build in the wake of the cold 
front, supporting another round of even stronger gap winds 
through the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to gale force are
possible through the Gulf of Papagayo Sun night into Mon.


High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 28N127W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong 
tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. The ridge will 
weaken Sun, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the 
tropics. Long period NW swell continue to dominate the region, 
with seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters W of 105W. Seas 
will slowly subside through the weekend, falling below 8 ft over 
20N. S of 20N, seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist into next week 
south of about 20N and west of 120W due to a a mix of northwest 
swell and remaining windwaves from local trade winds.