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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
911 UTC Mon Aug 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 18.3N 108.8W at 10/0900
UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 60
nm in the northeast semicircle and 90 nm in the southwest 
semicircle. In addition, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 109W and 112W. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 84W, extending southward from the
western Caribbean across Panama to 03N. The wave is moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolates strong
convection is observed off Costa Rica from 09N to 11N between 85W
and 87W. This tropical wave will be monitored over the next 
several days as it has the potential to act as a precursor for 
tropical cyclone development. There is a near zero probability of
cyclogenesis in the next two days, but there is a medium 
probability within the next five days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to
1010 mb low pressure near 08N97W to 10N100W. Another segment 
continues from 13N112W to 10N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 
90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 
08N to 12N between 112W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section above for more on 
T.S. Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over
portions of the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo
San Lucas, to include the entrance to the Gulf of California 
into Mon, before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands Mon and Tue.
Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents are 
possible over coastal areas as well.

Aside from T.S. Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail 
over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta 
Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to
Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja 
California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the 
Gulf of California.

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the 
waters north of 30N off Baja California Norte will diminish 
through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for 
the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough.
Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave
in the western Caribbean now crossing Central America, will prevail
across the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft 
range.

The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon 
trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong 
winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the
middle of next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the special features section above for more 
information about T.S. Elida.

The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the 
monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to 
moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Tropical
Storm Elida is forecast move into the discussion waters on 
Tuesday as a hurricane, bringing an increase in winds and seas. 

Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon
trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves 
has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas 
in the 6 to 8 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and
120W.

Looking ahead, the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation 
will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast 
waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale 
environment for active convection which will elevate the 
potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over 
the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will 
closely monitor this situation.

$$
Christensen/Levine