AXPZ20 KNHC 220946
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Lorena is centered near 28.3N 111.5W at
22/0900 UTC moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Convection associated with Lorena has moved inland Mexico.
On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross
the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed
by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Little change in
strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is
expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to
dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.
Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 21.0N 111.3W at
22/0900 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. There is no convection associated with this
system. A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected later today or on Monday. Mario is
then forecast to continue on that heading through early next
week. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Mario is expected to become a remnant low later today. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.0N 132.9W at 22/0900 UTC
moving SW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 21N between 128W
and 133W. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is
forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward
to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Some re-
strengthening could begin late Sunday, but is forecast to be
short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave is from 03N to 14N with axis along 91W, moving
west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 11N between 90W and 98W.
A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 103W, moving
west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 96W and 108W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N92W to 11N100W,
then resumes west of T.S. Kiko near 14N133W to 11N139W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 80W and
86W, and from 09N to 14N between 112W and 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong to near gale force winds and seas to 10 ft associated
with Tropical Depression Lorena are impacting the central Gulf
of California. Marine conditions will improve today as Lorena
moves inland NW Mexico. See the Special Features section above
for more information on Lorena. The low-level center of Tropical
Depression Mario is completely exposed. However, Mario continue
to produce hazardous winds and rough seas in the offshore waters
of Baja California Sur. Please see the Special Features section
above for more information on Mario. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in SW
swell associated with Mario will continue to affect the entrance
to the Gulf of California through this afternoon. Marine
conditions will deteriorate over the central Baja California
offshore waters Mon as the remnants of Mario track northward.
Light to gentle variable winds will establish over the region
Tue night and prevail through Thu.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon
trough through Thu with seas in the range of 6-8 ft due to S to
SW swell. Winds will likely increase to fresh to strong over the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Thu night as the
pressure deepens in the vicinity of the monsoon trough.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.
A surface ridge prevails N of 19N W of 124W. The pressure
gradient between Kiko and this ridge is supporting moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 20N and
west of 120W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, an area of 8 ft seas
in SW swell between 104W and 120W associated with tropical
depression Mario will drift SW through Mon night before
subsiding Tue morning.