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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220946
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Depression Lorena is centered near 28.3N 111.5W at 
22/0900 UTC moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 
40 kt. Convection associated with Lorena has moved inland Mexico.
On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross 
the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed 
by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Little change in 
strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is 
expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to 
dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
for more details.

Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 21.0N 111.3W at 
22/0900 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. There is no convection associated with this 
system. A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in 
forward speed is expected later today or on Monday.  Mario is 
then forecast to continue on that heading through early next 
week. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, 
and Mario is expected to become a remnant low later today. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.0N 132.9W at 22/0900 UTC 
moving SW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 21N between 128W 
and 133W. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is 
forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward 
to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Some re-
strengthening could begin late Sunday, but is forecast to be 
short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. See latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 03N to 14N with axis along 91W, moving 
west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N 
to 11N between 90W and 98W. 

A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 103W, moving 
west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 96W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N92W to 11N100W, 
then resumes west of T.S. Kiko near 14N133W to 11N139W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 80W and 
86W, and from 09N to 14N between 112W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Strong to near gale force winds and seas to 10 ft associated 
with Tropical Depression Lorena are impacting the central Gulf 
of California. Marine conditions will improve today as Lorena 
moves inland NW Mexico. See the Special Features section above 
for more information on Lorena. The low-level center of Tropical 
Depression Mario is completely exposed. However, Mario continue 
to produce hazardous winds and rough seas in the offshore waters 
of Baja California Sur. Please see the Special Features section 
above for more information on Mario. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in SW 
swell associated with Mario will continue to affect the entrance 
to the Gulf of California through this afternoon. Marine 
conditions will deteriorate over the central Baja California 
offshore waters Mon as the remnants of Mario track northward. 
Light to gentle variable winds will establish over the region 
Tue night and prevail through Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough through Thu with seas in the range of 6-8 ft due to S to 
SW swell. Winds will likely increase to fresh to strong over the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Thu night as the 
pressure deepens in the vicinity of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.

A surface ridge prevails N of 19N W of 124W. The pressure 
gradient between Kiko and this ridge is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 20N and 
west of 120W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, an area of 8 ft seas 
in SW swell between 104W and 120W associated with tropical 
depression Mario will drift SW through Mon night before 
subsiding Tue morning.

$$
Ramos