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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



935 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low Pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Visible satellite
imagery earlier this evening indicated that a broad low pressure
system has formed in association with an area of disturbed 
weather located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, near 12.5N95W at 1008 mb. Current winds are
estimated to be 20 to 25 kt with seas just less than 8 ft.
Infrared satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate to strong
convection within 150 nm mainly in the northeast quadrant of the
developing low. Additional similar deep convection is located
inland from the western coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua all
the way to southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two 
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 
to 10 kt. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are 
possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico 
during the next few days, and interests in these areas should 
monitor the progress of this system. In addition, the low will 
bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico starting 
Fri and through the weekend. This system has a high chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 83W north of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15
kt. Any nearby convection is described in the section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at
11N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12.5N95W to 1010 mb low
pressure near 11.5N107W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N117W to
1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N134W to 07.5N136.5W. The ITCZ
extends from 07.5N136.5W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 97W 
and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N 
between 92W and 95W, and from 08N to 11N between 127W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features above for details on the first 
potential tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season.

Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail from offshore Baja
California to near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are in
the Gulf of California, except moderate southerly in the northern
portion. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere west of the
area of low pressure and 97W to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in
the 5-6 ft range offshore Mexico and west of 97W, with seas 3 ft
or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland 
the coast of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Observations across coastal Mexico also report haze with slight
reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of 
Mexico.

For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible
tropical cyclone, winds offshore Baja California will increase 
to moderate to fresh Fri through the weekend and into early next 
week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside 
impact areas from the possible tropical cyclone. NW swell will 
build offshore Baja California late in the weekend into early 
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features above for details on the first 
potential tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season.

Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters,
except moderate offshore of the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are in 
the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N
within 60-120 nm of the coast of Central America ahead of a
tropical wave described above.

For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible
tropical cyclone, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough
Mon night through Tue night. Moderate seas in SW swell will
persist through the next several days, potentially building by
the middle of next week south of the monsoon trough as the winds
freshen.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 30N124W to 23N128W. No
significant convection is noted near the trough with gentle to 
moderate northerly winds west of the trough. Otherwise, high 
pressure of 1018 mb is located just west of the discussion waters
near 28.5N142W with broad ridging prevailing across the waters 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Several weak areas of low
pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure 
gradient between the high and lower pressures is supporting
gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and 
west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 120W
near the high center. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range mainly due to
a S-SW swell elsewhere across the open waters, locally to 8 ft 
near 11.5N134W where winds are likely locally fresh.

For the forecast, the high pressure will strengthen slightly this
weekend into early next week supporting moderate to locally 
fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate 
to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. 
Reinforcing southerly swell will propagate through the waters
south of 10N or so building seas to 7-9 ft Fri through the
weekend. Seas will also build slightly to around 8 ft south of 
15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the
weekend. A set of northerly swell will push south of 30N late in
the weekend into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north
of 22N between Baja California and 129W.

$$
Lewitsky