| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



551 
AXPZ20 KNHC 212109
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Aug 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2015 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 87W is moving W around 10 kt. Isolated 
moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 83W and 89W. 

A tropical wave along 102W is moving W around 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between 98W and 
111W.

A tropical wave along 119W is moving W around 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 116W 
and 128W.

A tropical wave along 134W is moving W around 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 16N between 132W 
and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 10N76W to 
08N83W to 09N100W to 12N119W to 12N126W. The ITCZ begins near 
12N126W and continues to 12N133W then resumes near 12N135W and 
continues beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 
03N E of 82W and from 07N to 15N W of 138W. For more information 
about convection see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge across the NE Pacific extending SE from a 1028 
mb high centered near 41N142W covers the forecast waters N of 
19N W of 118W. This ridge will support a weak to modest pressure 
gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California. Light to 
gentle NW winds are expected through Thu night before the ridge 
strengthens slightly and the pressure gradient tightens 
supporting then NW gentle to moderate winds along the Baja 
offshore waters. Seas will generally remain in the 3-4 ft range 
through Thu, then seas will increase to 5 ft over the offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte. Surface troughing over the Baja 
Peninsula will maintain a generally light wind regime over the 
Gulf of California through the weekend.

Strong N to NE gap winds will affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
tonight through early Fri morning. Winds are forecast to peak 
near 30 kt each night. Seas will build to 8 ft during the day 
and increase to 9 ft at night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will linger between 08N to 12N during the 
next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will 
generally be light to moderate. The main exception to this will 
be over the Gulf of Papagayo, where moderate to fresh offshore 
winds will pulse to locally strong each night. Seas are expected 
to remain 6-7 ft downstream of Papagayo during this time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the 
northern waters and the ITCZ will support gentle to moderate 
trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell N of the ITCZ and W of 
120W through the weekend.

Sea heights will be relatively low for most of the forecast area 
this week. Robust long period swell could arrive from the 
Southern Hemisphere toward the end of this week and cause seas 
near the Equator to begin building over the weekend.

$$
Ramos


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Aug-2018 21:09:46 UTC