Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



182 
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Kiko, at 15/1500 UTC, is near 17.0N 
121.1W. Kiko is moving W, or 275 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated 
minimum central pressure is 950 mb. The maximum sustained wind 
speeds are 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots. Numerous strong 
rainshowers are within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle, 
and within 75 nm of the center in the W semicircle. convection 
is found within 60 nm NE semicircle. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere: within 135 nm of the 
center in the N semicircle, and within 150 nm of the center in 
the S semicircle. A west to west-northwest motion with a slight 
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. 
Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast. It is 
possible that Kiko may become a category 4 hurricane later 
today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later tonight. 
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest PUBLIC advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 17N southward, moving 
west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers 
are from 09N to 15N between 91W and 95W. 

A tropical wave is along 99W/100W, from 17N southward, moving 
west 10 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
are from 07N to 16N between 97W and 102W.

A tropical wave is along 114W/115W, from 18N southward, moving 
west 10 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
are from 12N to 15N between 113W and 118W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 08N82W in Panama, to 12N99W, 
to 10N108W and 11N111W. The monsoon trough continues from 
12N123W to 12N126W, to 14N133W, and beyond 13N140W. Scattered 
strong rainshowers are within 100 nm to the N of the monsoon 
trough between 80W and 83W. Scattered moderate to strong 
rainshowers are within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough 
from 83W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are within 120 nm to the north, and within 60 nm to 
the south of the monsoon trough between 86W and 91W. 

Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 16N to 19N 
between 103W and 107W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the waters that are to the west of 
the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Light to gentle breezes prevail in this area. Gentle to moderate 
SE winds were in the Gulf of California, to the east of a Baja 
California surface trough. Little change in wind and sea 
conditions are expected in this region through early next week. 

Scatterometer data were showing fresh to strong northerly winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish in the 
afternoon, and then pulse to fresh to strong speeds again 
tonight. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by 
the middle of next week. A weak area of low pressure, now just 
off the coast of Guatemala, moves west-northwestward near the 
coast of Mexico during the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW flow is to the south of the monsoon 
trough. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 240 
nm to the west of the coast of Colombia, and within 60 nm to the 
south of the coast of Panama.

Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 15N 
between 91W and 95W, associated with the 92W/93W tropical wave. 
The environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
gradual development. It is possible that a tropical depression 
may form by the middle of the week, as the system moves west-
northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during 
the next several days.

Moderate S to SW winds will persist elsewhere to the south of 
the monsoon trough for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for information about 
Hurricane Kiko.

A high pressure center, that is to the north of the region, will 
maintain moderate NE winds to the north of the monsoon trough 
and to the west of 125W through Monday. An area of fresh SW 
winds and 8-9 ft seas continues roughly from 09N to 13N west of 
130W. A second area of fresh SW winds prevails well south of 
Hurricane Kiko, from 09N to 13N between 116W and 123W. Lingering 
SW swell is present from 06N to 11N between 94W and 110W. The 
wind speeds are 20 knots or less, and the sea heights range from 
8 feet to 9 feet. 

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms 
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is 
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible during the next several 
days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by the 
middle of next week, while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

$$
mt