000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: High pressure in the western
Gulf of Mexico currently inducing gale force winds and very rough
seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slide east tonight, allow
winds early Tue to subside below gale force briefly before a
stronger high pressure surges south into northeastern Mexico,
leading to storm force gap winds developing Tue night in the
Tehuantepec region, with winds of 50 kt and seas to 25 ft into
Wed. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Wed night, before
conditions improve slightly Thu as the second high slides
eastward. Another high pressure will build southward rapidly
toward the end of the week, possibly bringing more gale
conditions. Marine interests transiting in or near the the Gulf
of Tehuantepec this week take the necessary action to avoid 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.

Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure building into the
SW United States will support NW to N gales over the northern
Gulf of California with seas building to 11 ft late tonight into
Tue, along with fresh to strong winds over the remainder of the
gulf. In addition, strong winds are forecast to funnel through 
the gaps in the northern Baja California Peninsula into the 
Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia on Tue. 
Conditions will improve Tue night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Panama/Colombia border near 
07N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 04N115W and 
to 09N140W. A surface trough that had been over the far western
portion of the area N of the ITCZ has dissipated. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and east of 98W 
and similar convection is evident from 10N to 16N and west of 
130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm
Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the
northern Gulf of California.

A subtropical ridge located well west of Baja California Norte
continues to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across 
the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft. Mainly gentle N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the
waters in the Gulf of California and elsewhere offshore Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh 
winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 
mid-week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 
strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 
downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 
moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of 
the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo through at least late week. Seas there will build to 
8-10 ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by storm 
force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador periodically
through mid-week, with seas forecast to peak around 16 ft in NW 
swell Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong E-SE winds are occurring north of 27N and west 
of 135W. Seas in these waters are 10-14 ft. Elsewhere, waters are
dominated by the gradient between subtropical ridging to the N an
the ITCZ, causing widespread fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft. 
To the S, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening
low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will 
continue to affect the NW waters through Tue. Large NW swell 
will continue to propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix 
with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind flow over
the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much
of the area west of 125W through Tue night. These wave heights 
will subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to
late week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By
late week, strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will 
reach the eastern waters from storm-force gap winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec.

$$
Konarik