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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202034
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north 
Pacific equatorial trough is supporting gale force N gap winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas peaking near 11 ft. The 
area of high pressure will start to weaken and shift E tonight. 
This will loosen the pressure gradient, and diminish winds below 
gale force early Wed. The area of high pressure will then continue
to weaken and move further from the area, loosening the pressure
gradient and veering winds over the SW Gulf. This will diminish 
winds to 20 kt or less by Thu morning.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure within 
the eastern north Pacific equatorial trough is supporting fresh 
to strong winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, with 
occasional near- gale force winds closer to the Gulf. Winds will 
briefly pulse to minimal gale force in the Gulf late Wed night 
into early Thu morning with the added component of nocturnal 
drainage flow. As the area of high pressure weakens and moves 
further from the area, the pressure gradient will loosen and 
winds will diminish Fri and Fri night. Winds will strengthen 
again over the Gulf of Papagayo region on Sat as high pressure 
once again builds N of the area.

Large NW Swell: Subsiding NW swell prevails across the northern 
waters. This afternoon, seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters
N of 23N between 116W and 130W, and N of 25N between 130W and 
140W, and are peaking near 13 ft. Seas will subside below 12 ft 
this evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 08N78W to 04N101W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N101W to 04N117W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 
78W and 121W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Tehuantepec Gale Warning and the large NW swell.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient
prevails across the forecast waters. This loose gradient is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the Baja 
California peninsula and the Gulf of California. Light winds are
noted elsewhere. Aside from the seas greater than 12 ft 
discussed above, seas 8 ft or greater cover the waters N of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 6-7 ft are over the waters off SW 
Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales, 
winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next 
several days over the Mexican offshore waters. Large, long- 
period WNW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California 
to the Revillagigedo Islands through Wed night. Looking ahead, 
the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri 
night, with winds currently forecast to peak at near- gale force
speeds Fri night through Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Fresh to strong gap winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are over and 
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to locally strong winds 
are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 7-8 ft are 
well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to
occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Panama through Thu night before diminishing on Fri. Large NW 
swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will impact the outer waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about an ongoing large NW swell.

A surface trough extends from 30N128W to 22N128W. A 1029 mb high
is centered WNW of the area near 27N149W, with ridge extending SE
to near 23N130W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and the trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
winds over the waters N of 24N and W of 128W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades N
of the ITCZ and W of 130W. A weak 1022 mb high is centered near 
21N119W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate trades N of the ITCZ to near 11N between 100W and 130W. 
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the weak high 
center. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the seas 
greater than 12 ft, seas 8 ft or greater cover much of the waters
W of 105W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build into the NW waters in
the wake of the trough on Wed and Thu. This will tighten the
pressure gradient, and bring a slight increase to the trades N 
of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Areal coverage of seas greater than
8 ft will gradually start to decrease late Wed as the NW swell 
decays. On Fri into the weekend, an extratropical low will move 
slowly eastward along the 30N border, bringing strong to near 
gale N winds in its W semicircle. On Fri, a new set of very large
NW swell associated with the extratropical low will propagate 
into the NW waters. 

$$
AL