| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



338 
AXPZ20 KNHC 161603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POPOCATEPETL VOLCANO at 19.0N 98.6W is in a state of unrest. 
Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface within 150 nm of the 
Pacific coast of Mexico between 100W and 105W. Mariners should 
exercise caution. If mariners encounter ash or floating volcanic 
debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the 
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The equatorial surface trough extends from 05N77W to 05N86W to 
04N93W. The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 02N110W to 02N122W. A 
second ITCZ extends from 02S80W to 03S100W to 02S110W to 
04S123W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N 
between 85W and 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Strong high pressure anchored by a 1039 mb high NW of the 
forecast waters extends a ridge axis SE to just west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and generally lower pressure over the SW CONUS and along Mexico 
continues to support fresh to strong NW winds off the Baja 
California coastline with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft this 
morning. Long period NW swell of 14-18 seconds will continue to 
spread SE across the offshores of Baja trough early next week 
with seas building to 11-15 ft. Strong winds are expected to 
increase to near gale force within 60 nm off the coast of Baja N 
of Cabo San Lazaro tonight as a ridge builds NE of the area 
further tightening the presure gradient in the region.

The combination of these strong winds and large NW swell will 
produce very rough and dangerous marine conditions across the 
open waters through Mon, and produce very large and shifting 
waves along the coasts. Winds off Baja will diminish to gentle 
to moderate on Tue with seas of 8-10 ft. Winds and seas will 
further subside through Thu morning.

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail 
along the gulf today, increasing to strong S of 26N tonight. A 
weak cold front will enter the northern gulf waters on Sun night 
supporting fresh to strong SW to W winds N of 29N through Mon 
morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish 
tonight, but resume again Mon increasing to strong at night and 
continuing through Wed morning. Light and variable winds are 
expected elsewhere through Thu except for the Gulf of Panama 
where moderate northerly winds will dominate.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure centered well north of the Hawaiian Islands 
covers the forecast waters N of 12N. This is producing a tight 
surface pressure gradient along with lower pressure to the 
south, which is resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds 
mainly W OF 120W. New NW swell moving through this area is 
generating seas in the 9 to 16 feet being the highest seas N of 
20N. This strong ridge will strengthen slightly during the 
weekend, and remain generally in place, in order to maintain a 
large area of these strong NE to E winds across W and SW 
sections of the discussion area. 

Winds and seas will start to subside on Mon as the low pressure 
system affecting the Hawaiian islands moves N-NW, thus acting to 
decrease the pressure gradient in the region. Otherwise, a weak 
cold front is forecast to enter the NE Pac waters by Thu 
morning. However, only seas to 11 ft in NW swell are expected at 
this time.

$$
Ramos


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Feb-2019 16:03:53 UTC