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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1418 UTC Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force northerly
winds are expected through late this morning, and then again 
tonight into Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
persist to late Fri morning. Winds will become light and variable
Fri afternoon through Sun. The next gap wind event across the 
Tehuantepec region is forecast on Mon, likely reaching minimal 
gale force Mon evening through Tue morning. Seas will build to 
11-12 ft during the gale force events. Please refer to the East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W to 09N87W to 07N95W 
to 06N104W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N104W to 07N120W to 
09N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N
E of 80W to the coast of Colombia. Similar convection is N of 
08N between 82W-86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 06N-08N between 110W-115W, and from 13N-16N 
between 130W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features section for Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale 
Warning information.

Gulf of California: In the northern Gulf, light and variable 
winds will persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds
will follow a weak cold front moving across the area on Thu. In 
the southern Gulf, gentle to moderate NW-N winds will increase 
to moderate to fresh late Thu through Fri night as a ridge builds
across southern Baja California into the entrance of the Gulf of
California. 

Light and variable winds are noted across the offshore waters W 
of Baja California due to the presence of a 1019 mb high pressure
located near 26N116W. A weakening cold front is forecast to 
approach and move across the area on Thu. High pressure in the 
wake of the front will build eastward bringing increasing winds 
and building seas across the waters N of 29N by Fri night, and 
then N of 26N by Sat morning. Marine guidance suggests NW winds 
of 20-25 kt with building seas of 6-9 ft with NW swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas 
building briefly to 8 ft are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours through Fri, diminishing thereafter. 

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N for the next 
several days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough,
and moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4-6
ft mainly in mixed long period SW and NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A cold front extends from 30N127W to 25N134W to 22N140W. Seas of
8-13 ft in NW swell are in the wake of the front. The front will
move SE across the northern forecast waters reaching a position
from 30N119W to 28N120W to 24N125W by Thu morning while gradually
weakening and dissipating by Fri morning. Swell behind the front
will propagate across the region covering the waters N of 20N W 
of a line from 30N116W to 20N120W to another line from 30N126W 
to 24N140W by Fri morning. 

The pressure gradient between high pressure building eastward
across the forecast area and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds of 20-30 kt 
and seas of 8-11 ft mainly across the waters from 11N to 21N W 
OF 130W, and from 16N to 20N between 122W and 130W by Thu
morning. Similar marine conditions are expected by Fri morning. 

$$ 
GR

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Nov-2018 15:50:54 UTC