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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 021527

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The ITCZ extends from 04N92W to 01N120W to 04N140W. A second 
ITCZ is south of the Equator, extending from 05S86W to 05S120W. 
Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 110W and 130W.


A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas 
of 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 9 ft in NW swell in the outer offshore
waters N of Punta Eugenia. Light and gentle winds prevail in the
Gulf of California, with seas generally in the 1 to 3 ft range.  
Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are observed.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will prevail across the
area. Fresh to strong NW winds will develop W of the Baja 
California peninsula beginning on Sun. NW swell will build seas 
to 12 ft W of Baja California Norte on Sun. This swell event 
will propagate across the entire Baja California offshore waters 
by Sun night. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected.


High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 04N, along with 
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo
region tonight, with seas building to 6 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of 
Panama, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft will 
prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft through the weekend, 
then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft toward the middle of next week. 


A surface ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 15N 
and W of 110W. A swell event is propagating across the northern
forecast waters, with seas of up to 12 to 14 ft N of 28N and W 
of 125W. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft 
are affecting the area from 06N to 14N W of 130W. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build 
across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between high
pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will
support an area of fresh to locally strong Ne to E winds across
the west-central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades will
increase by Mon morning. The large set of northwest swell will 
continue to spread across the area through Mon, with seas of 8 ft
and greater seas covering most of the waters N of 05N and W of 
110W by Mon morning.