000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110939
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf of America tonight 
and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by 
Thu morning. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the 
front allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will 
rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and 
accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon. Rough seas are
expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough
to 14 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning,
then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverege 
through Sat morning. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 01N91W to 00N101W. The 
ITCZ is analyzed from 00N103W to 00N122W and beyond 01N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 03S between 
96W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for further information on a
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad surface ridge extends SE from a 1032 mb high NW of the 
region and covers the offshore waters of Baja California as well 
as the SW Mexican offshores to Jalisco. The gradient of pressure 
between low pressure over NE Mexico and the ridge is supporting 
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the offshores S of Punta
Eugenia and the southern Gulf of California, and fresh to strong
NW winds offshore Jalisco, Mexico. Seas with the strongest winds
are rough to 9 ft while moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of
America in the wake of a cold front, allowing strong winds to 
funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu 
morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds 
later in the morning and accelerate to gale speed early in the 
afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu 
morning, becoming very rough to 14 ft by Thu evening. Gales will 
prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in 
speed and areal coverege through Sat morning. A ridge will 
continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes
through Thu, while new NW swell spreads across the waters of 
Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected
between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, including Las 
Tres Marias, through this evening. Northerly winds will then 
freshen inside the Gulf of California this afternoon through Thu 
morning before the ridge weakens modestly across the area. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate to rough seas are
ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending downwind to 
approximately 90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate 
seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 04N. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW 
swell.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high 
pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse 
to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to 
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 
New cross-equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the 
Galapagos offshore waters Sat and subside Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb remains well NW of the region. An 
associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 10N and W of
110W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds from 03N to 20N west of 108W, except fresh to
strong between 130W and 140W. Altimeter data show rough seas in
the 8 to 10 ft range within these winds. N to NW swell is
entering the high seas west of the Baja California Norte offshore
waters, thus affecting the region N of 28N between 120W and 127W
with rough seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or 
weaker with moderate seas in mixed N and S swell.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of Baja California will extend
a ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical
waters. The NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is
forecast to subside Thu night. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial
SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters 
Sat and subside by Sun evening.

$$
Ramos