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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190221
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 UTC Fri Jul 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 95W is moving west around 10-15 
kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the
wave affecting southern Mexico. 

A tropical wave with axis near 106W is moving west around 10-15 
kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly north
of 13N. Environmental conditions could become a little more
more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters.
Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather 
Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information.

A tropical wave with axis near 129W is moving west around 10-15 
kt. A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 
12N129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-18N 
between 120W-133W. This system has not become any better 
organized since yesterday, and the chances for tropical cyclone 
formation appears to be diminishing. Please see the latest 
eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP 
for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 10N96W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N96W to 10N104W, then resumes west of a 
tropical wave near 09N108W to 12N127W. ITCZ resumes once again 
from 11N132W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection 
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers 
are noted along the ITCZ between 97W-104W and west of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the Baja California 
offshore waters. Meanwhile, fresh winds are noted over the 
southern waters a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco in 
association with a tropical wave currently near 106W. Elsewhere, 
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of 
Mexico and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong N gap
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas reaching 7 ft. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Sat morning, then diminish into early next week as high 
pressure weakens over the Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh
to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo. These winds will persist through the weekend and into
early next week, with associated seas peaking to 8 ft each 
morning. The monsoon trough crosses the offshore waters around 
09N, and the latest satellite imagery and lightning data reveal 
scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the trough. Winds 
in this region should remain gentle to moderate for the next 
several days. Seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will persist south 
of the Galapagos Islands through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge extends from distant a high pressure well NW of 
the region across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Latest scatterometer data showed fresh NE winds south 
of the ridge over the waters from 11N to 21N west of 133W. 
Corresponding altimeter data indicated 7-9 ft seas prevail in 
this region. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds Fri into Sat
as the high weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes. 
Elsewhere, combined seas will remain around 8 ft in southerly 
swell over the far southern waters for the next couple days. 

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information
about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the
next several days.

$$

ERA