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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 201306

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 UTC Sun Oct 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.


Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 17.5N
104.0W at 20/1200 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was
noted from 16N to 22N between 102W and 107W. Little change in
strength is anticipated today, before the system moves inland
over Michoacan and Colima tonight. Priscilla is expected to 
produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local 
amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, 
Colima, and Michoacan in southwest Mexico through Tuesday night. 
This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within 
steep terrain. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W N of 03N, moving west
around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 81W and 90W.


The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to Tropical Storm
Priscilla near 17.5N104W to low pres near 11N126W to low pres
near 10N137W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted from 09N to 13N between 93W and 100W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 14N between
104W and 110W.


Please see special features section above for more on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla. 

Elsewhere, large NW to N swell will continue impacting the Baja 
California offshore waters through Mon. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds will persist across the Baja California Norte offshore 
zones through tonight. Strong northerly gap winds are expected 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night through Wed. Strong
NW to N winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California 
late Thu and Thu night as strong high pressure builds over the 
western United States. 


Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region 
through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh SW flow, 
combined with SW swell, will maintain seas to 8 ft south of 
Panama and Costa Rica through late tonight. Wave heights will 
subside early next week as offshore wind speeds diminish and 
swell decays over the region. Looking ahead, another set of long 
period SW swell will move northward into the area by the middle 
of next week. 


The remnant low of Octave is centered near 11N126W. Scattered
moderate convection is located well southeast of the low
pres...from 08N to 11N between 121W and 125W. Early this morning
scatterometer pass indicated fresh winds in the northern
semicircle of the low. This system is expected to move little
over the next several days and further weaken, possibly opening
into a trough.

Another low pressure is centered near 10N137W. Early morning
scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong winds in the northern
semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 133W and 139W. This 
system as a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. Any 
development of this low pres should be slow to occur while it 
moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days. 
This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin by
early Mon morning.

A large set of NW swell continues spreading across the forecast 
waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N 
of 10N and W of 110W. The swell will gradually decay early this 
week, and seas will subside below 8 ft across most of the region 
by Tue.

Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge extends across the waters north
of 20N. Fresh to locally strong winds were noted 20N to 22N 
between 131W and 137W, and N of 28N between 121W and 124W. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over the waters 
north of 18N and west of 125W. Little change is expected over the
next couple days. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the 
monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds