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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300918
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
849 UTC Sat May 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North
Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre 
encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of 
100W, including portions of southeast Mexico and Central 
America. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these 
waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is noted across the waters N of 09N 
between 86W and 94W in association with the gyre. The gyre will 
move slowly northward, gradually encompassing all of Central 
America and southern Mexico this weekend. This will advect 
abundant moisture into portions of Central America through the 
weekend and into next week. Heavy rainfall is expected over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico, especially over 
southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western 
Nicaragua. This will bring the potential for life-threatening 
flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the 
heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

Tropical cyclogenesis is also possible in association with this 
Central American Gyre. There is currently a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation within the gyre over the eastern
Pacific waters during the next couple of days, and a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days. Please 
see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to low pres near 
11.5N92W to low pres near 08N123W to low pres near 10N131W TO 
07N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted 
N OF 09N between 86W AND 94W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection noted N OF 02.5N E OF 84W, from 04N TO 10N between 
84W AND 129W, AND from 07.5N TO 13N between 129W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation offshore of southern Mexico and Central 
America.

Outside of the winds associated to the Central American Gyre,
gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open waters off
Mexico, except for fresh northerly winds along the coast near
Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of 
California. Seas of 5-7 ft continue over the open waters off 
Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California.

The Central American Gyre over the eastern Pacific will shift 
toward southern Mexico and Central America. The feature will 
produce increased winds and seas and active weather over southern
Mexico offshore waters this weekend. There is a chance for 
tropical cyclone formation offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador 
this weekend within the gyre. Strong to near gale-force N winds 
are expected this weekend over the Tehuantepec region in 
association with this development. Elsewhere, high pressure will
build over the northern waters tonight into the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation offshore of Central America.

Hazardous marine conditions will prevail into early next week as
a long fetch of strong SW to S winds and associated seas 
increase over the offshore waters, in association with a Central 
American Gyre. There is a chance for a tropical depression to 
form within the gyre this weekend offshore of Guatemala and El 
Salvador and drift northward. Long-period SW swell will continue 
propagating across the region through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Deep layered low pressure across northern portions supports a 
weak 1011 mb low pressure analyzed near 36N124W, with a surface 
trough extending from the low south then southwest to near to 
22N126W. Moderate NNE winds prevail N of 27N to the west of the 
through, where wave heights are 6-7 ft. Elsewhere gentle to 
locally moderate NE trades prevail N of the monsoon trough to 
20N. 

A high pressure ridge will build across the northern waters this
weekend. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is 
expected over these outer waters over the next couple days.

$$
Stripling