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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260132
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Aug 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0130 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave crossing Central America with axis along 88W 
will move west at 10 to 15 kt into the tropical eastern Pacific 
later tonight. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N 
between 80W and 91W.

A tropical wave with axis along 118W from 02N to 15N is moving W 
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 05N to 14N between 115W and 123W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N110W to 09N114W to 
07N125W, the resumes near 15N130W to 12N136W to 14N140W. Aside 
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N W of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo centered near 26.1N 118.1W at 26/0000 
UTC moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 
kt. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is 
forecast to occur later tonight or on Monday before dissipating 
Tue night. Scattered showers are within 120 nm SW quadrant of 
Ivo. Southwesterly swell will continue to produce seas of 8 to 9 
ft through tonight over the Baja California offshore waters from 
Cabo San Lazaro to Ensenada, which will lead to large and 
dangerous surf. Ivo's last Forecast/Advisory can be found under 
AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC. 

A broad area of low pressure developing near Las Tres Marias 
Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds at the entrance 
and southern Gulf of California. These winds will prevail 
through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving across the tropical eastern Pacific 
waters will continue to support scattered moderate isolated 
strong showers north of 04N E of 91W through Mon. Higher winds 
and waves are likely with this activity. 

Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse at night across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region through Wed morning when winds will increase 
to strong speeds with building seas. Fresh to strong winds will 
then prevail through Thu. 

Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate 
the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos 
Islands through Fri along with small to moderate long period 
cross-equatorial SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure near 15N130W continue to generate scattered 
showers from 11N to 16N between 129W and 133W. An earlier 
scatterometer pass showed fresh winds within 60 to 75 nm of the 
low center. The low is forecast to move west of the area on Mon.

Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder 
forecast waters N of 20N W of 120W where light to gentle 
variable winds will dominate. Moderate NE to E winds are 
forecast through Fri between the ridge and the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ.

$$
Ramos