AXPZ20 KNHC 230403
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 UTC Mon Jul 23 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A low-latitude tropical wave has an axis extending from 01S80W
to 10N80W, moving westward around 20 kt. The wave remains evident
in tropical wave model diagnostics as well as a maximum in total
precipitable water satellite imagery. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is seen from 07n to 10n between 81W
and 84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
evident elsewhere from 05N to 10N between 78W and 89W.
A tropical wave has an axis reaching from 04N95W to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec near 17N94W, moving westward around 20 kt. The
wave is evident in 700 mb model guidance streamlines as well as a
pronounced maximum in total precipitable water satellite
imagery. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
occurring within 30 nm either side of a line from 14N97W to
12N100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
seen elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 92W and 101W.
A tropical wave has an axis extending from 07N125W to newly
formed low pressure 1010 mb near 10N125W to 18N124W, moving
westward around 20 kt. The wave is associated with broad
troughing at 700 mb as depicted in model guidance. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 11N
between 123W and 130W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia near 09N73W to
just NW of the Panama Canal near 10N80W to 07N93W to 11N113W to
11N123W, then resumes from 10N127W to 10N130W to 12N140W. Aside
from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to
13N between 108W and 111W and from 08N to 14N between 114W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad and weak high pres ridge extends SE from 32N140W to ESE
of the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N106W. The ridge is
maintaining light to moderate NW winds across the Mexican
offshore waters, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec area as
discussed below. Little change is expected in these conditions
during the next several days. A long period SW cross-equatorial
swell is affecting the waters S of 20N. This extensive swell
event will continue spreading northward, and will cause seas to
build to the range of 7-9 ft in the open waters for all the
forecast zones through Tue night.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh to strong north winds will pulse over
the Gulf one more time through Mon morning before diminishing to
light to moderate early Mon afternoon, gentle S to SW Mon night
and gentle variable winds Tue. Wind waves generated by the north
winds are interacting with the SW swell event resulting in mixed
seas south of the Gulf, with sea heights maxing out around 9 ft.
This area of 8 ft seas will merge with the much larger area of 8
ft seas approaching from the S on Mon, then seas will gradually
subside Tue and Wed.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
during the late night and morning hours through Wed morning
before diminishing to fresh. Seas from these NE to E winds will
interact with the SW swell event to produce mixed seas in the
Gulf as high as high as 10 ft on Mon before seas begin to slowly
subside on Tue.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough which will meander west of Central America
between 07N- 10N. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are generally
expected S of the trough axis during the next several days.
A long-period SW cross-equatorial swell event is already
affecting the region. Seas along the equator are will peak
tonight and Mon between 11 and 12 ft. Seas will then gradually
subside Tue through Fri, with the highest seas expected to the
west of Ecuador.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak surface ridge extends ESE from 32N140W to ESE of the
Revillagigedo Islands near 16N106W. The gradient between the
ridge and the monsoon trough is generally maintaining moderate
trade winds north of the monsoon trough, south of 20N and west
of 115W. Little change in this pattern is expected for the
upcoming week. Swell producing wave heights to a maximum of 8 ft
generated by strong winds N of the area is propagating southward
encompassing the discussion waters N of 28.5N and W of 131W.
This swell will continue to affect this region while slowly
shifting westward and subsiding through Mon evening.
Newly formed low pressure of 1010 mb is located along the
tropical wave that extends from 07N125W to 18N124W. The low will
generate fresh to strong winds as it tracks WNW to near 12N134W
by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds are forecast from 12N- 15N
between 131W- 134W, with seas of 8-10 ft by Wed.
Large long-period SW swell is crossing the equator, with seas of
8 to 11 ft affecting almost all of the waters S of 20N as
confirmed by satellite-derived sea height data. The swell will
continue to propagate N and cause seas to build to 8 ft or above
across most of the area to the south of 25N and east of 133W on
Mon. The swell will decay and allow seas to subside Tue through