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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150940
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 15 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.      

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force winds extending 
as far S as 15N95W will persist this morning, with winds to 40 
kt then persisting through sunrise on Fri. Gale conditions 
should end around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale winds will 
then pulse through at least late Tue night. Max seas of 22 ft 
are forecast downstream, while seas 8 ft or greater, primarily 
due to the NE swell mixing with cross-equatorial SW swell, will 
spread out across the waters from 03.4S to 14N between 90W and 
115W by late Fri. Seas should diminish below 8 ft on Sun night, 
but continue downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
middle of next week. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave has its axis from 04N133W to 15N132W, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Panama to 08N88W to 06N102W, 
where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, 
which continues NW to 09N121W to 09N131W through a weakening 
tropical wave to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection from 06N to 13N between 117W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of California: Fresh N winds, with seas to 6 ft, are 
expected N of 30N today. Moderate to fresh N winds and 1 to 3 ft 
seas are forecast across the entire gulf through tonight. 

A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican waters W of 104W 
with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the 
upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft 
downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh 
to strong northerly flow is expected N of 12N between 87W and 
90W, including Gulf of Fonseca, through early Fri. Northerly 
swell from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate into 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Thu morning.

Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is 
forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend.   

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating 
outward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to 
locally strong trades and 7-9 ft seas are observed N of the ITCZ 
west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward 
and slowly diminish today. 

A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W late Fri night 
accompanied by fresh westerly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas.  

$$
Mundell