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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



071 
AXPZ20 KNHC 162111
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1918 UTC Mon Jul 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W N of 03N, and is 
estimated to be progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave 
axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 05N, and is 
estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate to 
strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 
06N to 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W from 05N to 16N, and is
estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side 
of the wave axis from 07N to 11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 05N to 15N with 
low pres along the wave axis near 12.5N116W. This system is 
moving W at 18 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is observed within 270 nm either side of the wave 
axis from 12N to 15N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07.5N109W. The ITCZ 
extends from 12N117W to 08N130W to 10N139W. Aside from 
convection associated to the tropical waves and lows, scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N E
of 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted 
within 120 nm of the ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Nocturnal pulses of strong northerly 
drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 9 ft seas, can be expected 
through Wed night.

A surface ridge will meander across the area from near 23N116W 
to near 15N104W this week. A moderate NW breeze will develop 
within 90 nm of the Baja Peninsula during the evenings, otherwise
gentle anticyclonic northerly winds are expected around the 
ridge axis accompanied by 3 to 5 ft seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal gap wind pulses are expected 
across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the 
upcoming weekend.

Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. 
Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough 
for the next several days accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas.

Long period southerly swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range, 
will reach along 03.4S to the E of 93W late Wed night, and 
propagate N reaching the far offshore waters between 10N and 13N 
W of 93W during next weekend.


REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 
32N140W to 23N116W this week, with moderate to locally fresh 
anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied 
by 4 to 7 ft seas. 

Long period cross-equatorial swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft 
range, will move across the equator between 90W and 125W late 
Wed, and continue to propagate N across the discussion area S of 
10N between 92W and 135W during the upcoming weekend. 

Long period northerly swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft range, will
reach along 32N between 125W and 132W on Thu night, and cover 
the waters from 30N to 32N between 130W and 140W during the 
upcoming weekend. 

$$
AL


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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Jul-2018 21:11:54 UTC