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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222036
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Very large NW Swell: A gale-force low near 38N140W has generated
a large set of NW swell. The low will move SSE toward the NW 
discussion waters through early Fri, stalling just north of the 
30N border through Sat before drifting southward into the NW 
waters later in the weekend. Gales with this low are possible 
over the NW waters Sat night and Sun morning. Additionally, very
large swell generated from this low will propagate southward 
with the low and impact the NW waters. Seas greater than 8 ft 
have passed across 30N140W this morning, and are peaking near 10 
ft this afternoon. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this 
swell will enter the NW waters tonight, then impact much of the 
waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas
will peak near 21-22 ft on Sat and Sat night. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 03N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N105W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 91W 
and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the offshore waters off the Baja 
California peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over 
Mexico is supporting mainly moderate winds from the waters 
offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to Cabo 
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of 
California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 
7-8 ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula to south of 
Cabo Corrientes in subsiding NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less 
prevail in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft near the
entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night as high pressure builds behind a 
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap
wind event in Tehuantepec, with winds forecast to peak at near- 
gale force Fri night through Sat night. Winds in the Tehuantepec 
region will then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere 
over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain 
moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large, long-period 
WNW swell west of the Baja California peninsula to the 
Revillagigedo Islands will subside tonight. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Fresh to strong winds extend well downstream to near 91W, with
near- gale force winds closer to the Gulf. Seas over this area 
are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8
ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas of 5-6 ft 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, locally to near gale, 
across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo will briefly diminish 
Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Fresh to 
occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Panama for the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about upcoming very large NW swell.

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh to locally strong winds
N of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 120W. Moderate trades are 
elsewhere N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 110W. A cold front is
over far NW waters with gentle to moderate winds in the vicinity
of the front. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with 
seas of 8-10 ft in the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the 
waters from the equator to near 20N and W of 95W in NW 
swell...merging with NE swell E of 100W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-7 
ft are noted. 

For the forecast aside from the upcoming very large NW swell, 
fresh to occasional strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ will 
continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of 
seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decrease through Fri as the
original NW swell decays. 

$$
AL