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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 210307

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0215 UTC.


A weak surface trough extends from 07N82W to 02N95W to 03N110W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N110W to 03N123W to 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 01S to 04N between 93W and 106W, and 
from 06N to 09N between 111W and 115W. 



A strong ridge prevails across the offshore forecast waters west 
of Baja California, and extends to just west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds 
and seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are noted across the region 
under the influence of the ridge. On Thu, a cold front moving 
across the waters N of Punta Eugenia will support fresh to 
strong W to NW winds and seas in the range of 9 to 13 ft in long 
period NW swell. Strong winds off the coast of Baja California 
Norte are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Fri morning. 
However, seas of 8 to 12 ft will continue to move SE, reaching 
Cabo San Lucas Sat before subsiding. Light to gentle NW winds 
with seas to 4 ft will dominate across the offshores of Baja 
during the weekend and early next week.  

Gulf of California: Winds and seas are forecast to increase 
across the northern Gulf of California tonight through Fri 
morning as the aforementioned cold front move across the area. 
Expect SW to W winds in the 20 to 30 kt range ahead of the 
front, with mainly fresh N winds behind the front. Seas are 
forecast to build to near 8 or 9 ft Thu through early Fri. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the gulf 
waters through Tue with lighter winds mainly across the waters N 
of 29N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected to begin by Sun afternoon as a ridge 
builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds 
funneling through the isthmus of Tehuantepec will increase to 
gale force on Sun night but will decrease to 30 kt on Mon 
morning as winds N of the area shift from northerlies to E-SE 
winds. Winds and seas will diminish below advisory criteria on 
Tue evening. 


Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the 
Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period, but mainly during 
the overnight and early morning hours, with the assistance of 
the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the 
easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to 
9 ft through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event with wind 
speeds to near gale force is expected on Tue morning covering 
the entire offshores of Nicaragua and extending to the offshores 
of El Salvador. Seas during this period are forecast to reach 11 

Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas of 3 to 
5 ft tonight, and 2 to 4 ft the remainder of the forecast 
period. On Tue, fresh winds with seas to 5 ft are expected.


Strong high pressure located well north-northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands will move ENE and weaken some during the next 24 hours. 
Its ridge axis extends across the northern forecast waters to 
just west the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure difference 
between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering NE the 
Hawaiian Islands is tightening the pressure gradient across the 
west-central waters from 06N to 26N W of 120W where latest 
scatterometer data show fresh NE winds. Seas generated by these 
winds, combined with mixed NE and NW swell is resulting in an 
area of seas of 8 to 9 ft covering most of the waters W of 120W. 
The areal extent of these winds will diminish on Thu as the low 
pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands tracks northward. Seas 
will gradually subside through the weekend. Otherwise, a new set 
of long period NW swell associated with a cold front moving 
across Baja California Norte will reach the NE waters early on 
Thu with seas of 8 to 13 ft mainly in the area N of 20N E of