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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 291611

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.


The ITCZ extends from 05N88W to 00N105W, where it briefly ends
east of a trough that is along 110W. It resumes west of the
trough near 02N120W to east of a trough that is along 135W.
A second ITCZ is south of the Equator. It extends from 03.4S110W
to 02S120W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 00N to
04N between 103W and 118W. Similar convection is noted from 02N 
to 08N between 122W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection is 
also within 60 nm of the second ITCZ.


Surface ridging prevails across the Mexican offshore waters.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are over the southern portions
of the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds are from 18N to 26N and between 109W and 114W, where
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Seas west of Baja California norte are 6 to 7
ft in NW swell. Fresh to strong N winds have recently developed in
the Gulf Tehuantepec. Seas are beginning to build with these
winds to 5 ft. Light and variable winds prevail over the 
northern Gulf of California, with seas of 1-2 ft. Over the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop 
nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through 
tonight. The Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue through 
early tomorrow morning as strong high pressure builds north of 
the basin. Conditions will improve by Fri and continue through 
the weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will develop W 
of the Baja California peninsula by early next week as a frontal 
boundary approaches from the W. NW swell preceding the front will
build seas to 12 ft west of Baja California Norte Sun. 


The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 
western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are
5 to 7 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4 to 6 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulsing strong winds during the nights and early 
mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas
to 7 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds tonight and to moderate speeds or less 


Surface ridging prevails across the area. Fresh trade winds are 
noted from 06N to 18N W of 115W. Seas to 8 ft in decaying long- 
period northwest to north swell prevails in this area. Another 
area of seas to 9 ft in SW swell prevails S of 08N between 107W 
and 126W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present 
over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the 8-9 ft seas across areas S of 18N will 
dissipate slowly through the weekend. In the long-term, fresh trade
winds continue over the western part of the area through late Fri 
as a cold front moves across the north-central waters while 
strong high pressure builds in behind it. A large set of 
northwest swell will accompany the front, with the leading edge 
of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from near 30N120W to 
25N130W to near 21N140W by late Fri night. Seas to 14 ft are 
expected N of 27N and W of 120W over the weekend.