AXPZ20 KNHC 230932
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend will bring the next gap wind event
across the Tehuantepec region. Winds will begin to funnel through
the Chivela Pass by early Sun afternoon, with gale conditions
commencing Sun evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt
on Sun night, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal
gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon night.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 05N77W to
04N85W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 05N98W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N98W to 04N120W to 02N130W
to 02N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is along
the coast of Colombia near 05N77W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 07N between 93W and 100W. Similar convection is
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja
California Peninsula producing mainly a gentle to moderate wind
flow. Large NW swells are spreading into the waters off Baja
California, with seas peaking near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Seas
will continue to propagate along the length of the Baja
California Peninsula today while slowly subsiding. By tonight,
seas to 8 ft will cover mainly the waters of forecast zone
PMZ015 (Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas to 250 nm offshore).
Seas will then subside below 8 ft on Sun.
Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt
in the central and southern Gulf of California this evening
through Sun afternoon as the local pressure gradient tightens
between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail
across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period. Winds
will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours
with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some
added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW
Caribbean. The forecast calls for winds reaching 30 kt Sun night
through Wed, with building seas of 8 to 11 ft.
Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected
through Mon, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Winds will increase to 20 kt
Mon night through Wed, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft in response
to the increasing winds.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters to beyond
the Revillagigedo Islands near 19N105W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 11N to 17N
between 120W and 130W, and 09N to 19N W of 130W based on the most
recent scatterometer data. Seas over this area are in the 7 to
9 ft range. A surface trough is analyzed from 15N110W to 11N114W.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also seen W of the trough
to 120W, with seas to 8 ft.
Long period NW swells are propagating across the NE waters,
particularly N of 22N E of 133W. This swell event will continue
to push southward through late tonight before starting to subside.
Another set of long period NW swell will reach the far NW corner
of the forecast area by Mon night, and then spread SE across the
NW waters through mid week.