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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend will bring the next gap wind event
across the Tehuantepec region. Winds will begin to funnel through
the Chivela Pass by early Sun afternoon, with gale conditions 
commencing Sun evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt 
on Sun night, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal
gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon night. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 05N77W to
04N85W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 05N98W. The Intertropical 
Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N98W to 04N120W to 02N130W 
to 02N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is along 
the coast of Colombia near 05N77W. Scattered moderate convection 
is from 04N to 07N between 93W and 100W. Similar convection is 
near 04N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja
California Peninsula producing mainly a gentle to moderate wind
flow. Large NW swells are spreading into the waters off Baja 
California, with seas peaking near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Seas
will continue to propagate along the length of the Baja 
California Peninsula today while slowly subsiding. By tonight, 
seas to 8 ft will cover mainly the waters of forecast zone 
PMZ015 (Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas to 250 nm offshore). 
Seas will then subside below 8 ft on Sun.

Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt  
in the central and southern Gulf of California this evening 
through Sun afternoon as the local pressure gradient tightens
between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over
Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period. Winds 
will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours 
with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some 
added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW 
Caribbean. The forecast calls for winds reaching 30 kt Sun night 
through Wed, with building seas of 8 to 11 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected 
through Mon, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Winds will increase to 20 kt
Mon night through Wed, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft in response
to the increasing winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters to beyond
the Revillagigedo Islands near 19N105W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 11N to 17N
between 120W and 130W, and 09N to 19N W of 130W based on the most
recent scatterometer data. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 
9 ft range. A surface trough is analyzed from 15N110W to 11N114W.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also seen W of the trough 
to 120W, with seas to 8 ft.

Long period NW swells are propagating across the NE waters, 
particularly N of 22N E of 133W. This swell event will continue 
to push southward through late tonight before starting to subside.
Another set of long period NW swell will reach the far NW corner
of the forecast area by Mon night, and then spread SE across the
NW waters through mid week.

$$
GR