AXPZ20 KNHC 212103
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 21 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N77W to 04N92W to 02N108W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N112W to 01N126W to 02N133W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 102W and 110W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within an
area bounded by 15N103W to 02N113W to 05N119W to 13N108W to
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
An old frontal boundary that moved into the waters off Baja
California Norte continues to usher in fresh to strong winds
behind it. Winds west of Baja California will diminish tomorrow.
The front has also ushered in a set of NW swell into the waters
off Baja California Norte. The swell will continue to build and
spread southward across the remaining offshore waters of Baja
California. Seas will peak near 14 ft by Fri morning before
starting to subside. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover the length
of the offshore waters off Baja California by Sat morning, before
subsiding below 8 ft Sun.
Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
will prevail across the northern Gulf of California through Fri
morning before decreasing.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions
possible Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of
Papagayo through Sun, pulsing to strong Fri night and Sat night.
Winds will then strengthen Sun night through Tue night.
Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected
across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas less than 5 ft.
Wind will increase to moderate to fresh Mon night through Tue
night as the local pressure gradient tightens.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of
the ITCZ to around 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 10
ft range. NW swell has propagated into the northern waters N of
25N E of 134W. The swell will continue to propagate southward,
with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N
and E of 130W by late Fri before starting to subside.