000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia 
southwestward to the coast at 07N78W and continues to 06N80W to 
07N87W and to 07N95W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N105W to 07N115W to 05N128W 
and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 
99W and 107W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 
120W-123W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 107W-113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Generally weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed west of Baja
California at 26N126W. A ridge extends from the high center 
east-southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of
California is supporting gentle to locally moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
have become light to gentle in speeds and southeast to south in 
direction. Seas downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
subside to 8 ft due to northeast swell.

Winds in the northern Gulf of California have become fresh to
strong and south to southwest in direction. Seas with these winds
are 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle southeast to south winds along 
with seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere in the Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of at 4 to 6 ft in west to
northwest swell are offshore central Mexico, while light and
variable winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in an east swell are
offshore Oaxaca and Puerto Angel.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly gap winds in the
northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds on 
Wed. In the long term, strong high pressure building eastward 
toward Baja California will cause gentle to moderate northerly 
winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands 
to increase to fresh speeds along with building seas beginning on
Thu afternoon, and likely to change little through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are present in the Gulf of Papagayo region, while moderate to 
fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching south to 
near 06N. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Generally, light 
and variable winds are elsewhere over the Central American 
offshore waters, with the exception of gentle southeast winds 
over the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the Central American offshore 
waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
due to long-period south to southwest swell continue offshore 
Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, northeast to east winds will pulse to fresh to
strong speeds at the Gulf of Papagayo region during the late 
night and early morning hours through Thu night. Gentle winds at 
the Gulf of Panama will be at moderate to locally fresh speeds 
during this same time period. Rough seas off Ecuador will 
gradually subside to moderate by Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure center of 1019 mb is near 26N126W. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds from 08N to 16N between 111W and 121W and from north of 
the ITCZ to 18N between 121W and 140W. Seas associated to the
trade winds are 4 to 7 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 
6 to 8 ft west of 134W and from 04N to 18N. The combination of 
long-period northwest swell and shorter period trade wind 
generated waves over the western part of the area is sustaining 
the higher seas found there as noted in the latest altimeter 
satellite data passes over that part of the area. South of the 
ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are present 
along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Weak low pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed at 31N127W, with a
trough extending southwestward to 28N128W and to near 26N134W. 
Isolated showers are possible north of 28N and east of the trough
to 126W. Mostly fresh northwest to north winds are southwest of 
the low to near 29N131W. Seas with these winds are about 6 to 8 
ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trade winds are forecast 
to increase to fresh to occasionally strong speeds by Thu as 
stronger high pressure builds north of the region. Seas with 
these winds are expected to build to between 7 and 9 ft. The 
weak low pressure is forecast to move in a general eastward 
motion through Wed evening as it weakens further. Moderate to
fresh north winds are expected north of 28N and between 123W 
and 127W by that time along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Aguirre