AXPZ20 KNHC 240952
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 UTC Sun Mar 24 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to
04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 05N92W to 01N111W to
01N121W to 04N136W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 128W
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours through
Mon morning, then winds will abate until the next gap wind event
begins with winds of near gale force Mon night and to possibly
gale force gap winds Tue through Wed night.
Gulf of California: Rather tranquil conditions will continue
through early next week with winds generally less than 15 kt and
seas in the 1-3 ft range.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between an area of high
pressure center lingering to the NW of Baja California Norte and
lower pressure over interior Mexico will continue to generate
moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters off the Baja
Peninsula through Thu. A reinforcing set of NW swell is moving
into the area and will propagate as far S as the Revillagigedo
Islands by early Mon. Wave heights will peak around 11 ft over
the northern offshore waters today, then subside for the next few
days as the swell decays over the region. Seas for all of these
waters should subside below 8 ft by Wed night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE to E winds and
seas to 10 ft are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu
Gulf of Panama: Strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama
will diminish to fresh this afternoon through Wed. Strong N to NE
winds will pulse over the Gulf of Panama Wed night as stronger
high pressure builds over the Caribbean.
Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 5 to 7 ft seas in
mixed swell will continue through Sun night before subsiding
slightly. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas
will prevail through the middle of next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening cold front extends from near 32N116W to 29N123W, then
continues as a weakening stationary front to 27N134W to 25N140W.
Seas in this area are subsiding as NW swell decay and the front
continues to weaken. A new cold front will cross 30N140W around
midday today. This front will introduce yet another large set of
long period NW swell into the waters for the NW portion of the
discussion area today.
An enhanced pressure gradient between the ridge of high pressure
and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E trade
winds from roughly 07N to 12N west of 130W. These winds are
expected to diminish to fresh speeds by Mon afternoon as the
high center shifts ESE and weakens slightly.
Elsewhere, NW swell propagating across the forecast waters is
maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters generally N
of 03N and W of 114W. This area of swell will begin to merge with
cross-equatorial S to SW swell Tue and Wed. For the waters S of
Mexico and Central America, an area of mixed swell with seas to 8
ft is noted well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, or roughly
from 04N to 10N and between 91W and 110W. This area of swell will
decay today. NE swell generated by gap winds over the Gulfs of
Papagayo and Tehuantepec will merge with NW swell generated by
gales NW of the discussion area and long period S to SW swell
crossing the Equator Tue through Thu. This will produce a long
swath of 8 ft seas stretching from the Equator and 15N and
extending westward from 90W to beyond 140W.