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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



286 
AXPZ20 KNHC 250359
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Newton is centered near 19.5N 114.8W at
25/0300 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Peak seas to 9 ft within the area of strongest winds. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm NW quadrant 
of the storm center. On the forecast track, a westward general 
motion should continue overnight with a gradual turn towards the
southwest by late Sunday or early Monday. Little change in 
strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow weakening is
anticipated once Newton becomes a post-tropical remnant low, 
potentially as soon as tomorrow. Please read the latest NHC 
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml 
and Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 11N103W to 15N114W to
12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the Central America and Chiapas offshore waters, and from 10N to
15N between 117W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on T.D. 
Newton.

Outside of Newton, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are across
the Baja California Norte offshore waters while light to gentle
variable winds are elsewhere in the Baja California Sur offshore
waters. Seas along the Baja peninsula are in the 4 to 6 ft range
in mixed SW and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, light 
variable winds prevail with seas to 3 ft. Fresh gap winds are 
pulsing in Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to locally
moderate NW winds are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore 
waters with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, Newton will move to 19.4N 115.9W Sun morning, 
become a remnant low and move to 18.7N 117.2W Sun evening, 17.7N
118.6W Mon morning, 16.6N 120.0W Mon evening, 15.5N 121.4W Tue 
morning, and dissipate Tue evening. As Newton continue to move  
farther west and then southwest away from the Baja California 
Sur offshore waters tonight and Sun, moderate NW winds will 
continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters 
through early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of 
Tehuantepec, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Mon night into
Tue and continuing through the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, while 
light and variable winds are north of the trough. Seas are 5-7 
ft in S to SW swell across the offshore waters.

For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is 
expected. Winds between the Galapagos and Ecuador will increase to
fresh S to SW winds Sun as southerly swell continue to propagate
across the region. Seas to 8 ft are expected with this swell 
through Mon when winds are forecast to gradually diminish back to
moderate speeds. Winds will further diminish to gentle to 
moderate by the middle of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features above for details on T.D. Newton. 

Weak low pressure is analyzed near 20N126W. Moderate NE winds 
are noted within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the low center, 
where seas are up to 7 ft. This feature will dissipate tonight. 
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the monsoon trough 
and W of 130W with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern 
forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial 
S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 
130W, and maintain seas to 8 ft along the equator through Mon. 
Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by Tue 
and continue through the week.

$$
Ramos