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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1601 UTC Thu Apr 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough axis extends from 07N78W to 05N95W. A segment of the 
ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 07N125W. Another segment reaches
from 06N135W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 82W and 87W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05n to 10n
between 127W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 38N135W
through the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer pass
indicated gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California and
light SW winds across most of the Gulf of California. The
exception was a small area of 15 to 20 kt SW winds near a gap
area along the Baja California peninsula close to 30N. A concurrent
altimeter satellite pass showed seas of 8 ft or greater well off
the coast north of Punta Eugenia. This is primarily NW swell in
the area. Farther south, light W to NW persist, with seas 4 to 6
ft consisting of components of NW and SW swell. No shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted anywhere in Mexican offshore
waters at this time.

For the forecast, the northerly swell to 8 ft will persist off 
Baja California Norte into Sat. Otherwise the weak pressure 
pattern will maintain gentle breezes into Sat, before the pattern
changes. Low pressure north of the area will deepen, allowing 
fresh to strong SW winds across the Gulf of California late Sat 
into Sun. This will be ahead of a cold front expected to move 
into the area early next week. Farther south, no significant gap 
wind event is anticipated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the 
next several days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

An upper level low is centered southwest of Guatemala near
12N96W. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of this low is
supporting clusters of moderate to strong convection off the
coast of Costa Rica and western Panama, near Cocos Island. Some
of this is reaching the coastal waters, between David, Panama 
and Golfito, Costa Rica. Convergent drainage flow was causing a
few thunderstorms near the Gulf of Fonseca and off El Salvador
overnight, but this has diminished already. 

Elsewhere rather quiet conditions are observed over the Central 
American and equatorial waters. These conditions are expected 
to change little through Sat night. Early next week, a western 
Caribbean high pressure ridge is forecast to build southward, 
with the resultant gradient leading to fresh to strong northeast 
to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Long-period 
southwest swell should reach the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands on Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1028 mb high pressure is centered well north of the area near 
38N135W. Farther south, a surface trough is noted along the ITCZ
near 130W. Recent scatterometer data and TOGA-TAO buoy data
showed fresh to occasionally strong NW winds northwest of the
trough to about 20N. Concurrent altimeter data indicated seas of
7 to 9 ft in this area. Scattered moderate convection is active
near the ITCZ and close to the surface trough. 

The trade wind flow will increase Fri into Sat as the high
pressure north of the area builds. Seas will build accordingly in
the area of fresh to strong trades, possibly reaching 8 to 11 ft
Sat into Sun. Looking ahead to early next week, a frontal
boundary will move through the northeast Pacific toward
California, weakening and displacing the high pressure. This will
allow trade winds and associated seas to diminish over the
tropical waters Mon into Tue. Fresh trade winds can be expected
toward mid week as the high builds.

$$
Christensen