AXPZ20 KNHC 192109
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Dolores has moved inland and is centered near
20.3N 104.1W at 19/2100 UTC moving NNW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 24N
between 100W and 105W. Dolores will continue to weaken over land
and is forecast to dissipate by Sun. Impacted marine areas will
see an improvement in marine conditions through tonight. Heavy
rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
The axis of a tropical wave is near 86/87W north of 02N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 85W and 90W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 15N101W to 10N110W
to 10N133W. The ITCZ continues from 10N133W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N
E of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N
between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 100W and 110W, and
from 08N to 10N between 110W and 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Dolores.
Elsewhere, a surface trough extends just west of 120W. A weak
pressure gradient prevails across the waters with gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the forecast waters. Wave heights
are in the 5-7 ft range. A surface ridge will build across the
area this weekend as the trough dissipates. Mainly gentle to
moderate northwest to north winds will prevail into Tue.
In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will
continue along with wave heights of 3 ft or less tonight. Winds
are forecast to increase across the north and central parts of
the Gulf on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge west of Baja California peninsula and
low pressure over north-central Mexico. Wave heights are
expected to build to 4-5 ft across north and central portions
with these winds. Winds and seas are expected decrease by
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough, with light to gentle NE winds north of 10N and the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell.
Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue over
the offshore waters S of 10N, with variable winds north of 10N.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight. New SW swell crossed the equatorial waters overnight
and will reach the offshore waters tonight through Sun to raise
seas to 6-8 ft, and continue into early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough extends from 28N125W to near 23N128W. A high
pressure ridge is across the waters west of this trough near. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of the monsoon trough to near 15N and west
of 120W. A tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge
and the trough is supporting fresh northerly winds north of 28N
and west of 125W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to
moderate SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough.
Southerly swell has propagated north of the equator. This swell
will continue to spread north-northeastward into the weekend
reaching as far as 17N. Wave heights generated by this swell are
expected to be in the 7-9 ft range before starting to subside
early next week.