853 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180319
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 01N95W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N95W to 07N120W, and from 06N126W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 10N between
111W and 117W, and from 06N to 08N between 130W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 33N134W to near
Cabo Corrientes. This pattern is supporting moderate NW to N
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas over open waters north of 18N, and
gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the main issue will be successive cold fronts 
moving through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico, 
supporting pulses of gale- force gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun night, with strong gales possible Tue night 
through mid week. This pattern will also support rough to very 
rough seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec off eastern 
Oaxaca and Chiapas. The situation will be monitored over the next
few days, and a Storm Warning may be required. Elsewhere, a 
ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja 
California this weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds
with moderate seas. Long period NW swell will reach the waters 
north of Punta Eugenia early Mon morning building seas to 8 ft 
there. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong 
NW winds Mon night through early Wed as strong high pressure 
settles over the Great Basin of the United States. Gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere
through at least Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds are ongoing at Liberia, Costa Rica. This is a good
indication fresh to strong gap winds persist across the nearby
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere over
offshore waters from Ecuador to Guatemala. Seas are 2 to 4 ft,
except to 6 ft over the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will 
prevail in the Papagayo region over the next several days. The 
next gap wind event is forecast in the Papagayo area by Wed night
as a strong high pressure builds north of area. Light to gentle 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas 
generated by strong gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will
propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador Mon and Mon night, then again Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 33N134W. 
Its associated ridge dominates most of the waters north of the 
ITCZ and west of 110W. A surface trough is analyzed along the
ITCZ between 120W and 125W. This pattern is supporting fresh to
strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft from 08N to 18N west of 125W.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas persist elsewhere. A
few showers and thunderstorms are noted along the surface trough. 

For the forecast, the surface trough along the ITCZ between 120W
and 125W will move westward over the next couple of days. The 
area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem 
with this trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough 
and high pressure to the north. In addition, the pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and another surface trough 
approaching from the west will bring fresh to strong E to SE 
winds and building seas of 8 to 11 ft across the waters north of 
20N and west of 135W by Sun. 

$$
Christensen