687 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
across E Mexico in the wake of a Gulf-of-America-traversing cold 
front is initiating gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. This gale will be prolonged - likely lasting 
through Tue night - with a peak of severe gale tomorrow afternoon
and evening. Peak seas of around 17 ft are possible tonight into
Mon. Seas are quickly building this morning and be very rough by
Sun. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
into the middle part of the week should be aware of these gale- 
force gap winds and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous 
marine conditions over the affected waters.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Forecasts issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N90W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 08N100W beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N 
between 105W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N
to 19N between 114W and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region. 
Refer to the Special Features section above for details. 

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed the onset of gale
force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the 
Tehuantepec area, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
persist across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active near Socorro Island, associated with a 
trough in the area.

For the forecast, aside from the Tehuantepec gale, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle part of
next week. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepecer gap wind event may
commence Thu night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A late evening scatterometer pass showed fresh gap winds across
the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are 
occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region currently with seas 5
to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3 to 
5 ft in mainly NW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region through at 
least mid next week. This high pressure will also force moderate 
to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama from Mon night into Wed 
night. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker over forecast 
waters through mid next week. Large to very large NW to N swell 
generated by gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the 
waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active along cold front 
extending from 30N135W to 20N140W. Fresh SE to S winds are
ongoing within 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 28N. Large NW
swell of 8 to 11 ft accompanies the front. Fresh E to SE winds 
and seas to 7 ft are evident south of Socorro Island near a 
trough along 115W from 10N to 20N. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are also active near this trough, specifically 
from 08N to 18N between 105W and 115W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell, dominate 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front near 137W will not progress 
much farther east, as the strong SE winds will lift north of our 
area and the front dissipates later today. Large NW swell will 
continue but not reach equatorward of 12N or eastward of 130W 
before subsiding early next week. The Tehuantepec and Gulf of 
Papagayo region gap wind events will be strong enough to bring 
fresh to strong NE to E winds into the region through Tue night 
along with seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, winds should remain 
moderate or weaker and seas less than 8 ft for the next several 
days.

$$
Christensen