000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141504
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds behind a
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico are funneling through the 
Chivela Pass and supporting gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region. Gales will continue through this afternoon 
when seas are expected to be at approximately 10 ft. Gales will 
likely resume again Wed night as strong high pressure builds 
over Texas just N of a surface trough over the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period will 
peak at 13-14 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force 
on early Fri.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 05N109W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N109W to beyond 05N140W. No significant 
convection is noted at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak pressure gradient in the region due to a surface trough
along western Mexico and another westward moving trough to the
west of the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters near 123W,
continue to support light to gentle winds and moderate seas to 7
ft in NW swell along the Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters. 
Locally moderate NE winds are likely near the Baja California 
coast as well as near the entrance of the Gulf of California. 
High pressure over the Great Basin of the United States, is 
supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds along the Gulf of 
California where seas are 3-5 ft. Otherwise, gales are ongoing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec where rough seas have built to 9-10 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds ongoing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region will continue through this afternoon when 
seas are expected to be at approximately 10 ft. Gales will likely
resume again Wed night as strong high pressure builds over Texas
just N of a surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas
in the Tehuantepec region during this period will peak at 13-14 
ft. Winds will diminish quickly below gale-force by early Fri. 
Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California are forecast to 
continue through tonight, gradually diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds Wed night, and then prevail mainly over the 
southern and entrance of the Gulf through Sat night. Gentle to 
moderate NE winds are forecast to develop across the Baja 
California Sur Peninsula Wed morning and prevail while expanding 
to the Baja Norte offshores through the weekend. Light to gentle 
winds are expected elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft are 
ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with
this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in NW swell. In 
the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the
NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between 
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo will continue through Sat, likely increasing to near 
gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the 
Caribbean. Rough seas to 10 ft are expected with this gap wind 
event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap
wind event will continue to propagate across the outer offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Pulsing 
fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate
speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. 
Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and
The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 
To the west of the Baja California offshore waters, a surface
trough extends along 126W. The pressure gradient between the 
trough and the ridge to the west continues to support moderate to
fresh NE to E winds N of 20N and W of 126W where seas are 8 to 
11 ft in northerly swell. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate
and seas are moderate. 

For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja
California offshore waters will dissipate late on Wed and then
surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the
weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will
gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a 
surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 
110W on Wed and then propagate westward enhancing winds to fresh 
to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft through Sat 
night.

$$
ERA