AXPZ20 KNHC 171546
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 17 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 09N79W to
08N100W to 08N115W to 09N130W. It then transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm south of the trough between 78W- 80W and within 60
nm of trough between 104W- 107W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered NW of the area is dominating waters
offshore Baja California, creating moderate to fresh NW winds,
with a localized area of strong winds near Cabo San Lucas. These
winds will continue into mid-week. Fresh to locally strong
northwest winds are expected primarily north of Cabo San Lazaro
this evening and into Tue as the pressure gradient tightens some.
Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Winds will further increase to fresh
to strong speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja
California beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds
southeastward across the waters west of Baja California. South to
southwest swell will build seas as it propagates across the
waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning on Tue. Looking ahead for
later in the week, a trough or low may form south of the Gulf of
Gulf of California: Generally moderate SE winds will prevail into
late week, then transition to SW. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will
gradually increase through the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate E winds in the Papagayo region will continue to decrease
today. These will pulse to moderate again Tue, before diminishing
again into late week. Seas of 5-7 ft will change little through
mid-week. Long-period cross equatorial southerly swell will
continue to impact the offshore forecast waters over the next
several days. Seas of 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight. Additional
pulses of long-period southwest swell will reach the area by mid-
week building seas to 8 ft or higher.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure continues to dominate the northern waters. This is
producing a large area of moderate to fresh trades N of the
ITCZ, with seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
noted elsewhere, with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to a
southerly swell component. Long-period cross equatorial
southerly swell over the waters south of about 10N and east of
about 111W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands will decay
late tonight, but additional pulses of long-period southwest
swell will begin to propagate through these same waters by mid-
week building seas to a maximum height of 10 or 11 ft west of the