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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



856 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160302
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E is centered near 13.7N
93.4W at 16/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seventeen-E is forecast to move to 14.6N
94.8W Wed morning as a tropical storm, then inland to 16.2N 
96.2W Wed evening. This system is embedded within the larger 
circulation of a Central American Gyre. A large area of scattered
convection associated with this system is noted over the 
forecast waters N of 07N between 88W and 97W. Heavy rainfall 
currently occurring across Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and 
Guatemala is forecast to spread westward across southern Mexico 
by Wed. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, 
especially in mountainous areas. See latest NHC forecast/ 
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, from 03N to 16N, 
moving W at around 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, from 04N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N80W to low
pressure near 13.5N93W to 11N100W to 13N108W to 11N115W to
13N122W to low pressure near 12N126W to low pressure near 15N135W
to 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N
between 78W and 83W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is N of 11N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of
the monsoon trough between 106W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seventeen-E.

Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja 
California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N 
wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas
of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands
by Sat night and continuing through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seventeen-E.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 115W. Earlier scatterometer data shows gentle to 
moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by 
altimeter data.

A weak 1010 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon 
trough near 12N126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm of the low center, except within 90 nm in the SW
quadrant. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are 
within 90 nm of the low center. This low is forecast to linger in
the same general area through the week with similar winds and 
seas in the vicinity. 

Another weak 1010 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon
trough near 15N134W. Scattered moderate to strong convection has
developed within 240 nm in the N quadrant of the low. Currently
winds are 20 kt or less and seas are less than 8 ft. The low is
forecast to open up into a trough during the next 24 hours while
approaching 140W. Even so, the pressure gradient between the
remnant trough and the broad ridging to the N is forecast to
tighten allowing for an area of seas to 8 ft through Thu before
shifting W of 140W.

A cold front will approach to near 30N140W Wed into Wed night, 
followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft 
will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This 
swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of 
the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters
N of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. The 
swell will slowly decay from NW to SE by the end of the upcoming 
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky