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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 200356

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0245 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to commence tonight as a 
strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind the front 
will provide a very tight gradient over the area, and bring an 
increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds 
will rapidly increase to gale force tonight, and reach storm 
force early Sunday. Winds will diminish below storm force Sun 
night, then below gale force on Mon evening. Seas will peak near 
25 ft Sunday during the period of storm force winds. Swell 
generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft 
seas that will extend up to 105W by Mon evening. Marine 
interests transiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early 
next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and 
take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over 
the affected waters. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind a 
strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This 
will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to gale force are expected 
in the Gulf of Papagayo Sun night into Mon evening with seas 
building up to 13 ft by Mon afternoon. Strong winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Panama Sun night through Tue night increasing 
to near gale force early on Mon. Fresh to strong winds will also 
pulse across the Gulf of Fonseca Sun night through Mon morning. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for 
further details.


A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located 
over Colombia near 05N75W to 04N82W to 06N89W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N90W to 03N102W to 04N120W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N west of 135W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N 
between 110W and 117W.



Please, see special features for more details on the upcoming 
storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
starting tonight. A Storm Warning is currently in effect.

Elsewhere, moderate north to northwest winds along the offshore 
waters off Baja California combined with long period NW swell is 
producing seas of 8 to 12 ft over the waters off Baja 
California. This swell event will bring dangerous surf and large 
breaking waves across portions of Baja California through Sun 
morning. Seas will slowly subside this weekend, falling below 8 
ft by Sun afternoon. A new set of NW swell, with seas in the 8 
to 11 ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore 
waters on Mon morning. This swell will spread across the 
remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California through Tue 

Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin north of 
the area is supporting fresh to strong northwest winds across the
entire Gulf. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will 
support wave heights to 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California 
tonight. Winds and seas will diminish on Sun afternoon as the 
high weakens and shifts eastward. Another ridge will build over 
the Great Basin early on Tue, leading to the return of strong 
winds along the entire Gulf through the middle of the week.


The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of 
the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong to near 
gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through early 
next week. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Please, see special features for more details.


High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 29N130W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ, roughly south of 17N and W of 119W. The 
ridge will prevail and strenghten over the course of the week, 
thus maintaining strong winds over the central and western 
tropical waters. Long period NW swell will continue to dominate 
this region, with seas 8 ft or more in northwest swell. 

A cold front will drift SE across the NW corner of the area 
through Sun afternoon when it will stall while it weakens. High 
pressure in the wake of the front will bring increasing winds 
and building seas across the west-central waters, and also over 
the offshore waters of Baja California, mainly N of Punta 
Eugenia on Mon.