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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231545
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 23 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west from the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama, and then 
across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 09N84W, then turns 
slightly northwest to 11N95W, then dips southwest to 07N110W, 
then continues west-northwest to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm 
either side of a line from 03N78W to 14N95W to 06N108W to 
11N118W to 08N135W, and in a single cluster within 60 nm of 
16.5N102W.    

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast low level ridge will meander just 
beyond 250 nm seaward of northern and central Mexico for the 
next few days. Moderate northwest flow is observed west of 100W, 
and light to gentle northwest flow is observed east of 100W . 
with 4 to 7 ft seas throughout. Little change then forecast 
through Thu afternoon when a tightening pressure gradient will 
produce a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the 
Baja Peninsula. Locally strong conditions are forecast within 
about 60 nm of the west coast of Baja beginning on Fri night
with seas building to 5 to 8 ft during the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of California: A moderate nocturnal southwest breeze is 
expected along 30N for the next several days. A moderate 
northwest breeze is forecast to begin across the southern Gulf 
of California on Thu and continue through the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected 
through Fri night.     

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light southerly winds are expected through the upcoming weekend. 
Current seas of 4 to 7 ft should subside to 3 to 5 ft by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface high is centered near 27N76W with a ridge extending 
southeast to near 12N98W. The high will shift southeast allowing 
a cold front to reach a position from 32N132W to 28N140W this 
evening. The front will continue east eventually losing identity 
from 32N124W to 25N130W on Fri night into Sat. Although only 
fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of the front, 
northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft seas across 
the waters from 29N to 32N through Fri morning. 

The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low 
develops along the ITCZ near 10N132W on Thu resulting in fresh 
to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low as seas 
build to 8 ft. The low should drift west and gradually dissipate 
near 10N135W during the upcoming weekend.

$$
Nelson