AXPZ20 KNHC 201550
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 20 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds
continue across and well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning. An overnight scatterometer pass indicated gale
force winds to 40 kt, with winds to 20 kt extending all the way
to 10N97W. Winds have diminished very slightly since this time
and are expected to fall below gale force before noon. Seas
generated by these winds are producing an area of 8 ft or
greater wave heights that extends SW from the Gulf to near
09.5N99W. Winds are forecast to further diminish to 20 to 25 kt
by Sun morning, and then become variable at 15 kt or less Sun
night through the early part of the coming week. Please read the
Pacific High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFEP2 and
under the WMO header FZPN03 KNHC for more specific marine
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 09.5N75W TO 08.5N86W TO 06.5N98W. The ITCZ
continues from 06.5N99W TO 08.5N110W TO 06N125W to beyond
01.5N140W. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted from
03N to 09N east of 100W, within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between
108W and 140W, and from 10.5N to 12.5N between 87W and 92.5W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad and weakening ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California, while a surface trough continues
along the Baja California peninsula this morning. The pressure
gradient between these features supports moderate to fresh NW
winds N of Punta Eugenia and gentle to moderate winds between
Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia. Seas have subsided slightly
this morning to 5-7 ft. These marine conditions are expected to
persist over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW winds
will continue to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia, with seas
to 8 ft in NW swell Sun through Mon night. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
Gulf of California: Winds will briefly increase across the
northern part of the Gulf this evening. At that time, expect SW
to W winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas generally less than 4 ft.
Otherwise, the current pressure pattern is expected to generally
produce gentle to moderate SW to S winds into early next week,
with afternoon seabreeze influences.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect. Please see the
Special Features section above for details.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast
across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W tonight
through Mon night, with seas building to 7-8 ft. Winds will be
strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the
assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected the remainder of the forecast period with
seas below 8 ft.
Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will briefly
affect the Gulf of Panama by Sun night, then mainly gentle to
moderate northerly winds will prevail across this area, with
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period SW swell.
Light to gentle winds will dominate the remainder of the offshore
forecast waters, with seas of 4 to 5 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends SE across the forecast waters from a 1029 mb high
pressure located near 37N138W to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to
strong trade winds that covers the waters from the ITCZ
northward to about 20N W of 124W. The high pressure will move
southward while strengthen some. This will keep an area of fresh
to strong winds roughly from 06N to 20N W of 130W over the next
couple of days. Seas will remain in the 8 to 9 ft range.