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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds 
continue across and well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
this morning. An overnight scatterometer pass indicated gale 
force winds to 40 kt, with winds to 20 kt extending all the way 
to 10N97W. Winds have diminished very slightly since this time 
and are expected to fall below gale force before noon. Seas 
generated by these winds are producing an area of 8 ft or 
greater wave heights that extends SW from the Gulf to near 
09.5N99W. Winds are forecast to further diminish to 20 to 25 kt 
by Sun morning, and then become variable at 15 kt or less Sun 
night through the early part of the coming week. Please read the 
Pacific High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFEP2 and 
under the WMO header FZPN03 KNHC for more specific marine 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A trough extends from 09.5N75W TO 08.5N86W TO 06.5N98W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06.5N99W TO 08.5N110W TO 06N125W to beyond 
01.5N140W. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted from 
03N to 09N east of 100W, within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 
108W and 140W, and from 10.5N to 12.5N between 87W and 92.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad and weakening ridge dominates the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California, while a surface trough continues 
along the Baja California peninsula this morning. The pressure 
gradient between these features supports moderate to fresh NW 
winds N of Punta Eugenia and gentle to moderate winds between 
Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia. Seas have subsided slightly 
this morning to 5-7 ft. These marine conditions are expected to 
persist over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
will continue to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia, with seas 
to 8 ft in NW swell Sun through Mon night. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
expected. 

Gulf of California: Winds will briefly increase across the 
northern part of the Gulf this evening. At that time, expect SW 
to W winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas generally less than 4 ft. 
Otherwise, the current pressure pattern is expected to generally 
produce gentle to moderate SW to S winds into early next week, 
with afternoon seabreeze influences.  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect. Please see the 
Special Features section above for details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast 
across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W tonight 
through Mon night, with seas building to 7-8 ft. Winds will be 
strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the 
assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Moderate to fresh 
winds are expected the remainder of the forecast period with 
seas below 8 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will briefly
affect the Gulf of Panama by Sun night, then mainly gentle to 
moderate northerly winds will prevail across this area, with 
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period SW swell.

Light to gentle winds will dominate the remainder of the offshore
forecast waters, with seas of 4 to 5 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends SE across the forecast waters from a 1029 mb high
pressure located near 37N138W to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to 
strong trade winds that covers the waters from the ITCZ 
northward to about 20N W of 124W. The high pressure will move 
southward while strengthen some. This will keep an area of fresh 
to strong winds roughly from 06N to 20N W of 130W over the next 
couple of days. Seas will remain in the 8 to 9 ft range.

$$
Stripling