000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092050
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07.5N85W to 03N99W. The ITCZ is 
analyzed from 03N99W to 03N114W to 02.5S126W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 
03.4S to 06.5N between 82W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03.5N to 08N between 127W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low remains offshore of central Baja California, to the
west of Punta Eugenia, near 27.5N116W, and is shifting toward 
the NE. To the northwest of the low, a broad surface ridge 
prevails and extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This is 
producing a tight pressure gradient across the southern
semicircle of the low and also between the low and 125W,
resulting in fresh to strong W to NW winds over the S and W 
semicircles of the low, extending to approximately 22.5N from 
the low center, as recently captured by satellite scatterometer
data. Rough seas of 7 to 9 ft in N-NW swell are within these 
winds. Elsewhere across the northern semicircle of the low, winds
are moderate or weaker. This surface low is also supported by a 
deep layered upper level low, which is aiding in producing 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern 
semicircle of the low that extend inland from near Punta Eugenia 
to Baja Norte and much of Bahia de Sebastian Vizcaino. In the 
Gulf of California, southerly winds are gentle to locally 
moderate with seas slight. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere to Puerto Angel, where a broad a
very weak ridge prevails. Fresh N gap winds are slowly 
diminishing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend to near 
13.5N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft..

For the forecast, the aforementioned low center will continue to
move eastward and reach Punta Eugenia this evening, before 
dissipating over Central Baja and Gulf of California late 
tonight through Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
associated with this low will continue to affect the waters 
between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia tonight. As the low 
moves over Baja California tonight, moderate to fresh SW to W 
winds will develop across central and southern portions of the 
Gulf tonight through Tue morning. Behind the exiting low, a 
ridge will build toward Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, 
while new NW swell enters the waters of Baja California Norte. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over 
Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds between Baja Sur and
Cabo Corrientes, including Las Tres Marias, from late Tue 
through Wed evening. Northerly winds will also freshen inside 
the Gulf of California Wed through Thu morning. Otherwise, a 
strong gap wind event is forecast to begin across Tehuantepec on 
Thu morning, with winds likely reaching gale-force Thu evening, 
then diminishing below gale-force by late Fri morning.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7
ft continue to slowly weaken across the Papagayo region, and
extend downwind near 92W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and 
downstream to 04N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas are elsewhere. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell has begun to 
cross the equator and reach the Galapagos Islands and coastal 
Ecuador today, and will spread into the remaining offshore waters
of Central America during the next 24-36 hours.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as 
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also 
pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Mainly
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the 
forecast period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will build across 
the regional waters today through Tue night, before subsiding 
Wednesday. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1029 mb remains well to the NW of the region 
near 37N143W. An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of 
about 10N and W of 115W. The related pressure gradient is 
sustaining fresh NE winds from 04N to 15N between 125W and 140W.
Rough seas of 7 to 8 ft in mixed swell prevail with these winds.
A 1008 mb low pressure is nearing to coast of central Baja 
California, with fresh to locally strong W to NW winds extending
northwestward to 127W and southward to 22.5N. Elsewhere, winds 
are of moderate or weaker and seas moderate in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the low pressure will move eastward and
dissipate over Baja California and the Gulf of California 
tonight into Tue. New high pressure will develop NW of Baja 
California Tue, and extend a ridge across the E Pacific 
subtropical waters. As a result, new NW swell will move into the 
waters W of the Baja California offshores to about 130W Tue night
and Wed, and subside Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross- 
equatorial swell will reach the waters W of the Galapagos by this
evening and propagate N and NE, producing rough seas as far N as
20N through Wed, before subsiding from east to west Wed night 
through Fri.

$$
Stripling