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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142229
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 14 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.      

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force winds extending 
as far S as 14N95W will persist through late tonight with winds 
to 40 kt then persisting through sunrise on Fri. Gale conditions 
should end around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale winds will 
then pulse through Tue night. Max seas of 22 ft are forecast 
well downstream near 13.5N96W while seas 8 ft or greater, 
primarily due to the NE swell mixing with cross-equatorial SW 
swell, are forecast to spread out across the waters from 03S and 
14N between 90W and 113W by late Fri. These seas should diminish 
below 8 ft on Sun night, but continue across and just downstream 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave has its axis from 04.5N129W to 16N128.5W, moving 
westward at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 06N to 12N within 240 nm of the wave axis.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Pacific coast of 
Colombia at 10N75W across the northern Panama to the Pacific 
coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W, then continues W-SW to 07N95W 
where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, 
which then continues SW to 06N102W, then turns NW to 10N122W, 
then W through a weakening tropical wave at 10N128W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
within 150 nm either side of a line from 10N76W to 06N86W, 
within 90 nm of 09N98W and 09N118W, and within 120 nm either 
side of a line from 10N122W to 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec storm event.

Gulf of California: Strong N winds, with seas to 7 ft, are 
expected N of 30N through tonight. Fresh N winds and 2 to 4 ft 
seas expected elsewhere tonight with a moderate NW breeze, and 1 
to 3 ft seas, are forecast across the entire gulf on Thu 
afternoon through Thu night. 

A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican waters W of 104W 
with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast tonight 
through the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft 
downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning.

Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will 
propagate into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through 
Thu morning.

Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is 
forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend.   

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating 
outward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to 
locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 
the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift 
westward and slowly diminish through Thu. 

A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W late Fri night 
accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 9 ft seas.  

$$
Nelson