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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221620 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jan 22 2019 CORRECTED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SECTION IN DISCUSSION Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... Gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wednesday night: N to NE winds 30 to 35 knots, and seas building to 8 feet. The wind speeds will increase to N to NE 35 to 40 knots, and sea heights increasing to 12 to 15 feet, on Thursday morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial surface trough passes through the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 06N82W to 06N86W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 03N104W to 05N126W. A surface trough is along 132W/133W from 03N to 09N. The ITCZ continues again from 04N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 112W and 124W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The surface pressure gradient, between a broad ridge anchored NW of the area and a low pressure system in Colorado, is supporting fresh to strong NW winds along northern Baja California and the Gulf of California. Gulf of California: Strong NW winds in the Gulf of California will continue through Thursday. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet in parts of the Gulf by this evening. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The current gap wind event is winding down. The N to NE 20 to 25 gap wind event is winding down, with wind speeds less than 20 knots later this afternoon. Gale-force N to NE winds will start again on Wednesday night, and increase to N to NE 35 to 40 knots by Thursday morning. Gale-force winds are forecast to continue in some form until at least Saturday morning. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure NE of the area will support strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo, and to a lesser extent, the Gulf of Panama into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north of 15N and west of 110W. The surface pressure gradient, between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly west of 125W. A surface trough may develop and deepen along 130W by mid-week. The GFS global model is most aggressive for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models show trough development, but lighter winds associated with the trough. $$ mt