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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200921
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
517 UTC Wed Jun 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 93W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection associated with this wave is 
noted from 03N to 06N between 90W and 96W and from 12N to 14N 
between 92W and 96W. Westward progress of this wave will slow 
over the next day or so. This wave will be one to watch with 
interest for potential tropical development this weekend into 
early next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N105W to 10N118W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N118W to 11N134W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 08N between 85W
and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
from 08N to 10N between 101W and 104W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 13N between 114W
and 120W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 04N to 10N
between 129W and 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will 
prevail through late Thu. Moderate seas offshore of the Baja 
peninsula will subside slightly by Thursday. A new pulse of 
northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja 
California Norte by the end of the week, building seas to near 8 
ft Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over 
the open waters the next several days. Cross equatorial southerly
swell will propagate into the waters off Southern Mexico by the 
end of the week, which will build seas to near 7 ft by Saturday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will prevail near 10N through Thu before 
slowly lifting northward. Light to gentle winds will prevail N of
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
prevailing S of the monsoon trough. A pulse of long period SW 
swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, with 
combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft late Fri, except in the lee 
of the Galapagos Islands. The swell will continue to spread 
across the southern forecast waters, with seas building to 5 to 8
ft S of 08N early Saturday. Seas will start to subside on 
Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 32N132W extends a ridge 
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic wind flow prevails over the waters north of 20N, 
while gentle to moderate trades prevail S of 20N and west of 
120W, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas N of 20N will 
subside slightly to 4-6 ft by this evening. A fresh pulse of 
northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Thursday,
with seas building to 6-8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W 
Friday. Southerly swell will cross the equator on by Thu 
morning, building seas to 6-9 ft south of 10N and west of 90W 
late Friday. Seas associated to this swell will start to subside
Sunday into early next week. 

$$
AL