AXPZ20 KNHC 211533
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 21 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 17.1N 125.5W at 21/1500
UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 122W and 127W.
Weakening has commenced and is likely to continue as Kenneth
moves into an environment of stronger shear, drier air, and
cooler ocean temperatures. The system is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low in about 36 hours. A turn to the north-
northwest and then the north is expected tonight and early
Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 07N120W. It
resumes from 11N132W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 14N E of 115W and from 10N to 15N between
135W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of
5-7 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, fresh and seas of
3-4 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the
Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the
Gulf. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle
winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the region into the weekend. Moderate NW
to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California,
with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
occur tonight through Fri. Fresh SW winds will prevail in the
northern Gulf of California today.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle winds
prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in
the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds will prevail.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Kenneth.
Low pressure along the monsoon trough around 13N has moved W of
140W. There are still some strong NE to E winds associated with
it from 13N to 15N W of 138W as well as seas of 8 to 10 ft in a
slightly broader area. However, conditions will improve today as
the low continues to move W away from the region.
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting
waters from 15N to 25N, W of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Seas of 8-9
ft are found N of 29N between 121W and 130W. Mainly moderate
southerly winds are south of 05N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in
long period SE swell. Gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas
are north of 23N between 120W and 130W under a weak pressure
pattern. For the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or
weaker with seas of 4-7 ft.
For the forecast aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, high
pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly
north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this
system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with
seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater
will gradually decay over the next day or so. Looking ahead, a
low pressure trough currently several hundred miles SSW of the SW
coast of Mexico may gradually develop over the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves W across the central and western part of