241 
AXPZ20 KNHC 152056
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling 
through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force NNE
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Peak 
seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period will peak 
to 11 ft mainly on Thu. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-
force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of 
Mexico. Looking ahead, a second gale-force gap wind event is 
forecast for the region by Sun evening. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N99W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N99W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 01N to 06N and E of 96W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the region. A surface 
trough is west of the Baja California Peninsula along 126W. With
these, light to gentle winds prevail across the Baja and SW 
Mexico offshore waters. Seas in these two regions remain moderate
in the 4-6 ft range and in NW swell. Northerly winds associated 
with a surface trough over the far western Gulf of Mexico 
continue to funnel through the Chivela Pass, supporting gale- 
force winds in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 8-10 
ft. Otherwise, high pressure over the Great Basin of the United 
States is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf 
of California, with seas to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region will continue through Thu night. Winds will 
quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow 
establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds in 
the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds 
this evening, and then prevail mainly over the southern and 
entrance of the Gulf through Sun night. A surface trough will 
develop near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Fri while 
a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos, which will result in 
moderate NNE winds along the Baja California offshores through 
the weekend. Looking ahead, a second gale-force gap wind event 
is forecast for the region by Sun evening. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8-10 ft are 
ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with
this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 5 ft in mixed E and NW 
swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from 
the NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between 
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat and
moderate to fresh speeds Sun. Rough seas are expected with this 
gap wind event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the 
Papagayo gap wind will continue to propagate across the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. 
Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to 
moderate speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the 
weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between 
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat 
night into Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure of 1029 mb located well N of area extends a 
ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. A 
weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough that 
extends from 18N124W to 30N131W. Fresh NE winds in the vicinity 
of the trough between 121W and 135W where seas are 8-9 ft. Far SW
from the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds is present from 03N-16N and E of 122W. 
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. 

For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja
California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then 
surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the 
weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will 
gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a 
surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 
110W tonight and then propagate westward enhancing winds to 
fresh to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft 
through Sun night.

$$
ERA