AXPZ20 KNHC 130846
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
slightly decreased in coverage and organization since yesterday.
However, environmental conditions remain somewhat conducive for
the development of a short-lived tropical depression today while
the system moves WNW to NW at 9 to 13 kt. By Sunday, upper-
level winds are forecast to strengthen over the system, and
further development is not expected. This system has a high
chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N with axis near 101W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms
associated with this wave are across the S and SW Mexican offshore
waters, and from 06N to 12N between 97W and 102W.
A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 111W,
moving west at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low has detached from the
wave and is located just east of it near 17N109W, which is
described in more detail in the Special Features section above.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 16N to 19N
between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 06N to 13N between 107W and 114W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 17N109W to
11N116W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 14N and E of 95W, and from 08N to 14N between 118W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on low
pressure located a few hundred nautical miles WSW of Manzanillo,
Mexico, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.
Moderate NW winds are across the Baja California peninsula
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas to 6 ft in NW
swell. Moderate to fresh winds are in Jalisco and Colima offshore
waters associated with the low in the Special Features section.
Seas are currently in the 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds
are elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft range in SW swell, except
for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, regardless of development of the area of low
pressure in the Special Features, showers and tstms will continue
across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through the weekend.
The low is forecast to reach the Baja California Sur offshore
waters S of 20N by Sat morning with winds reaching near gale
force speeds. Seas are estimated to build to 9 ft during that
period. Winds and seas associated with the low are forecast to
diminish by late Sun afternoon as the low moves near 19N113W.
Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue in the Baja California
peninsula offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon night, then
diminish to light to gentle winds for the remainder forecast
period. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are expected
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America
offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate
S to SW winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with 5-6
ft seas in SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the
offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through
the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase the seas in
this region Sun night and will continue to spread northward
towards the Central America offshore waters through the week.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will prevail across
the Central America offshore waters through the middle of the
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a
tropical depression today. Regardless of development, strong to
near gale force winds are possible just SW of the Baja California
Sur offshore waters Sat and Sun.
Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of
the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate NE to E winds are N
of 20N and W of 131W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon
trough and 20N W of 130W where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle
winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough between 110W and
125W. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with
seas to 6 ft.
For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no
major changes are expected elsewhere through the middle of next