AXPZ20 KNHC 151443
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 17.8N 113.6W at
15/1500 UTC moving W at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to
35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 16N to 19N between 113W and 118W. Seas are ranging between
8-9 ft in the northern semicircle of the system, mainly east of
Clarion Island. Ten-E will weaken through today, becoming a
remnant low near Clarion Island.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
A tropical wave axis is near 91W/92W north of 05N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Convection is described below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 12N103W. It
continues from 15N117W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N east of 85W, from 05N
to 15N between 85W and 95W, and from 10N to 13N between 125W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Ten-E.
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja California north of
Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 4 to 6 ft north of Punta Eugenia in NW
swell. Farther south, fresh to strong winds are noted between
Socorro Island and Clarion Island related to Ten-E, with seas
estimated to be as high as 9 ft in this area. Light to gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters
in mostly SW swell south of 20N, and NW to N swell north of 20N.
Light winds and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, Outside of Tropical Depression Ten-E, gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle breezes persist north of 05N, with 3 to 5 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell
are noted south of 05N.
For the forecast, moderate SW winds will prevail across the
offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through
the forecast period. SW swell in this region will continue to
spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters
south of 05N through the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the northern Central America offshore
waters through mid- week. Looking ahead, fresh winds may pulse
across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua by late
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.D.
Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of
the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds are north of the monsoon trough, where seas are 4-6 ft.
Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range.
For the forecast, aside from T.D. Ten-E, no major changes are
expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.