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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082250 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2250 UTC Wed Feb 08 2023

Updated Remainder of Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure remains just 
north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area 
of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N 
and west of 115W. Significant wave heights within this area of 
winds are 11-13 ft primarily due to NW swell at 12-15 seconds. 
The highest of the wave heights located from 15N to 22N W of 
137W. Seas will will subside to just below 12 ft by late tonight 
and change little through Thu night as the majority of the strong
winds shift to W of 140W. Seas then build slightly back up to 12
ft near 140W from late Thu night through Fri as a set of NW 
swell at 12-16 seconds begins to propagate into the far western 
part of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from just inland NW Colombia near 
10N75W to 03N83W to 03N91W to 03N100W and to 03N110W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N110W to 06N122W to 04N132W to 06N133W and 
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 
120 nm S of trough between 77W-80W, and also within 60 nm 
N of the ITCZ between 116W-121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing 
fresh to strong NNW winds across the Gulf of California, where
seas are 5-8 ft across central and southern sections. Fresh to 
occasionally strong N to NE winds are offshore the waters of the
extreme southern part of Baja California, while gentle to 
occasionally moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere offshore 
Mexico. The most eastern edge of an extensive area of NW swell 
reaches to just SW of Cabo San Lucas and to the vicinity of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico 
due to long- period NW swell.

For the forecast, strong high pressure dominating the Baja 
California waters will maintain fresh N to NE winds and seas to 8
ft tonight from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas tonight. Winds
and seas will then diminish through Fri morning. Strong NNW 
winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will persist
through Thu morning before diminishing modestly through Fri. 
Peak seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the southern Gulf through
Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to occasionally strong 
northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
starting early Thu, then increase to gale-force starting Fri 
night, and possibly increasing to storm force late Fri night 
into early Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will be 
offshore far northern Baja California from Fri night into early 
Sun, then diminishing to fresh speeds through Sun night and to 
moderate speeds Mon and Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending offshore to 90W per latest ASCAT data over the
area, and as verified by a ship observation in the area. Seas 
are 6-8 ft in this area. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds 
are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas
are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, 
along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through 
early next week. Winds may reach near gale-force at night on Sun 
and Mon. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, 
then remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat.
A significant gale-force gap wind event cross Tehuantepec over 
the weekend is expected to send large NW swell across the Guatemala
and El Salvador offshore waters Sat through Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated

Strong 1033 mb high pressure remains N of the area near 37N130W.
The associated broad ridge is maintaining a large area of fresh 
to strong NE to E winds across the waters N of about 06N and W 
of about 115W. Large NE wind generated seas are combining with 
NW swell moving through the regional waters resulting in 
seas of 11-13 ft. Please see the Special Features section for 
information concerning these significant seas.

East of 110W, seas are 6-9 ft in mixed NW and S swell. 
Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak 
perturbation aloft, in combination with low-level speed 
convergence of the trade flow is helping to sustain scattered 
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the ITCZ between 
115W-1250W. This activity remains about stationary for the time 
being, but cirrus blow off clouds from the tops of the 
convection is streaming E from 05N to 14N and between 113W-130W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
dominate the waters west of 115W through tonight, then begin to 
drift NE and gradually weaken through Thu. Strong NE trade winds 
and large seas peaking to 12 and 13 ft will prevail across the 
area west of 130W tonight, then subside to just below 12 ft 
early on Thu. A cold front is expected to enter the NW waters 
Thu afternoon, accompanied by large NW swell. High pressure 
behind the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E 
winds to the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. Seas will build 
again to 12 ft and greater over the western part of the area on 
Fri as the large NW begins to propagate into that part of the 
area. The weakening front will approach the Baja offshore waters 
Sat, with the strong high pressure behind it tightening the 
gradient resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large 
seas over the weekend.

$$
Aguirre