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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220259
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
building behind a frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to support a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40
kt in the Tehuantepec region. These conditions will continue 
through Sun night, allowing for seas to build up to 14 ft at
times. For more information on this event, see the latest East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N77W 
to 06N100W. The ITCZ begins W of a pair of troughs near 09N121W
to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm
on either side of the trough and ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gentle to moderate N to NW winds are off the Baja peninsula and
the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft in the gulf and 3 to 5
ft elsewhere off Baja California. Gale force winds continue in
the region of Tehuantepec with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across
the SW Mexican offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft. 
A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California
and off of Baja California Norte on Sat. Fresh to strong winds 
can be expected in the northern Gulf on Sat morning with seas to 
4 ft. The front will stall and dissipate over Baja California 
Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic extending to the
northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong NE to E 
gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for
moderate SW winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with
seas building to 9 ft over the weekend. Winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama tonight through 
early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the 
next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters Sat night through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1008 mb low is near 24N141W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
north of the low in latest scatterometer data where seas are in 
the 8 to 14 ft range. There is no convection associated with the
low in the area. This system is expected to continue moving westward
into hostile environmental conditions and development into a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is not expected. 

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the low pressure 
will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds 
tonight. As the low moves west, it will substantially weaken. 
Winds and seas are expected to diminish by tomorrow morning. 

$$
ERA