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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142138
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 18.0N 113.3W at
14/2100 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. The center of Ten-E remains exposed under strong easterly shear 
keeping numerous showers and thunderstorms within 30 and 120 nm 
to the SW of the center. Seas are ranging between 8-10 ft in the
northern semicircle of the system, west of Socorro Island. 
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. The 
depression is forecast degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 87W north of 09N, moving west at 
around 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms associated with this 
wave are from 04N to 13N between 84W and 94W. 

A tropical wave extends along 109W from 05N to 19N, moving west 
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the 
northern portion of the wave mainly N of 14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N102W, and from 
15N114W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
04N to 13N and E of 94W, and from 06N to 16N between 122W and 
beyond 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Ten-E.

Moderate NW winds prevail off Baja California north of Cabo San 
Lazaro, with fresh winds possibly funneling along the coast. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro in NW swell. Farther 
south, fresh to strong winds are noted between Socorro Island and
Clarion Island related to Ten-E, with seas estimated to be as 
high as 10 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters in mostly SW swell 
south of 20N, and NW to N swell north of 20N. Light and variable
winds and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ten-E will move to 18.0N 
113.8W Mon morning, become a remnant low and move to 17.9N 114.3W
Mon afternoon, 17.7N 114.8W Tue morning, 17.6N 115.5W Tue 
afternoon, 17.6N 116.4W Wed morning, and 17.6N 117.3W Wed 
afternoon. Ten-E will dissipate Thu afternoon. Light to gentle 
variable winds and slight to moderate seas are expected 
elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevails west of Costa Rica
and Panama as a tropical wave interacts with the monsoon trough 
in the area. Fresh winds and seas to 6 ft are expected within 
this activity. Light to gentle breezes persist north of 05N, 
with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas in SW swell are noted south of 05N. 

For the forecast, moderate SW winds will prevail across the 
offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through 
the forecast period. Seas will build in SW swell in this region 
tonight and then will continue to spread northward towards the 
Central America offshore waters south of 05N through the week. 
Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas will prevail 
across the northern Central America offshore waters through mid- 
week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.D. 
Ten-E.

Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of 
the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds are north of 20N and west of 125W, where seas are 4-6 ft. 
Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough between
110W and 120W. Moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon 
trough with seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, aside from T.D. Ten-E, no major changes are 
expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.

$$
ERA