000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252139
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force N winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending southwestward to near
13N this afternoon. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed
winds to minimal gale force within 60 nm of the coast of
Tehuantepec, with peak seas estimated at 13 ft. These winds are 
producing rough to very rough seas extending as far south as 06N 
and west to 106W. The gale force winds will gradually diminish 
below gale force in intensity and shrink in areal extent this
afternoon through Sun morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
briefly pulsing again to near gale force Sun night. Rough to very
rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
downstream into Tue.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N74.5W to
04.5N89W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N91W to 09.5N117W to 09N122W
to 06N128W to 07N136W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05.5N E of 83W 
to coastal Colombia, from 07N to 12.5N between 107W and 123W, 
and from 05.5N to 10N between 120W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about the 
Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.

A 1038 mb high pressure is centered across the NE Pacific and 
extends southward across 30N and then weakly southeastward to
offshore of Baja California Sur. The weak pressure gradient E of
120W is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and slight 
to moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Winds throughout the Gulf of California remain light to gentle 
winds with slight seas, except for moderate S winds across far 
north portions.

In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
of less than 6 ft prevail. NE swell propagating outward from 
Tehuantepec is producing seas of 7 to 9 ft across the far outer 
waters of Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across Baja Norte
and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker 
reinforcing front over the next few days. This will induce S to 
SW winds ahead of it to strengthen to fresh to strong across the 
northern waters late this afternoon into Sun. By Sun afternoon,
wind there will weaken, leaving gentle to moderate winds to 
prevail through the early part of next week over the Gulf of 
California. New northerly swell will arrive into the Baja Norte
waters on Sun, reaching near 10 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe, 
before subsiding across the Baja waters Mon through Mon night. 
Light to gentle winds will continue across the Baja offshore 
waters through Sun evening, then gradually return to moderate N 
to NW winds Mon through Tue, as high pressure begins to build
across the region. Winds across the Baja offshore waters
southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands will increase to
fresh to locally strong Tue night through Wed as high pressure
sinks to near 30N and builds across the region. Meanwhile, 
strong to gale-force N winds will persist across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec until Tue night, producing rough to very rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A 1034 mb high pressure system centered over the southeastern
U.S. continues to force fresh to strong easterly gap winds across
the Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W this afternoon,
as verified by midday scatterometer satellite data. Gusts there may
reach near gale force tonight. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds 
are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El 
Salvador. Seas in the areas described are generally 6-10 ft. 
Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-5 
ft are found in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 
05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
persists this morning across the waters from coastal Colombia to 
83W between 02N and 05.5N.

For the forecast, a strong ridge positioned north of the area 
will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force 
easterly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Mon, then pulsing fresh to strong winds through the remainder of the
forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force winds in the 
Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala through late Sun, with seas forecast to peak around 11
ft in northerly swell today. Moderate to fresh to locally strong
winds will also prevail through the weekend over the Gulf of 
Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong yet narrow subtropical ridge positioned well north of 
the area extends southward across 30N and into the eastern 
Pacific between 120W and 150W. The modest pressure gradient 
across the tropical Pacific results in moderate to locally fresh 
NE-E winds and moderate seas west of 130W, as confirmed by 
afternoon scatterometer satellite data. Moderate to locally 
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found north of the 
ITCZ to 17N between 130W and 105W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong 
NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are found east of 105W and 
north of the ITCZ due to the winds and swell spreading downstream
from the gap wind events occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec 
and Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
are evident.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 
persist through Sun evening in the eastern waters south of 20N 
as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 
events farther east. To the west, trade winds will diminish 
somewhat as the high pressure ridge to the north weakens, and 
seas will gradually subside from east to west through the 
weekend. Farther north, the high pressure will weaken due to a 
cold front expected to move through the waters north of 25N and 
east of 125W late today through Mon. Northerly swell of 8 to 11 
ft will follow the front, and cover the region north of 25N by 
Sun night. Seas is this region will subside below 8 ft Mon night.
Looking ahead, high pressure over the the NE Pacific will re-
organize along about 30 N by Wed, and increase the pressure
gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W through the end of
the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong S of 20N
there, with seas building to 7-10 ft.

$$
Stripling