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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 280236

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N86W. The ITCZ  
continues from 03N86W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is S of 09N and W of 100W. 


A broad jet stream branch to the southeast of a deep upper-level
trough west of Baja California continues to advect tropical 
moisture northeastward toward Baja California. Fresh southwest 
winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Seas with these 
winds are 3-4 ft. Fresh northwest winds are south of Cabo San 
Lucas to near 21N, while moderate or weaker winds prevail in the 
rest of the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over the 
area described are 5-7 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the 
central and southern Gulf of California, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the fresh southwest winds over the northern 
Gulf of California will diminish tonight. Pulsing fresh winds 
are forecast to develop nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and
Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long-period northwest swell is 
expected to move into the outermost offshore waters north of 
Punta Eugenia on Wed before subsiding Wed night. The next 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and continue 
through Thu night as strong high pressure builds north of the 
basin supporting strong to near gale-force north winds. 
Conditions will improve by Fri.


The gradient associated to high pressure over the western 
Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo region as highlighted by latest ASCAT 
satellite data. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh north 
to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward
to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and 
early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to around 8 ft with the 
strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds at night through the next few days. 


An upper-level trough is over the north-central waters. An active
subtropical jet stream branch to its southeast, advecting ample 
broken to overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward
Baja California. Scattered showers are possible N of 18N and E of
123W. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of 28N between 123W-129W. 
Seas with these winds are 10-12 ft as confirmed by an earlier altimeter
satellite pass. Fresh northeast winds are S of 28N W of 124W. 
Seas in the area described area 8-9 ft due to long-period 
northwest to north swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern 
Pacific is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure system
located near 36N158W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are present over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds and seas of 10-12 ft 
will diminish tonight into Wed. The 8-11 ft seas will subside to
8-9 ft in long-period north to northwest swell by late Wed. In 
the long-term, trade winds will increase again to fresh to 
locally strong starting late Fri over the western part of the 
area as a cold front begins to advance across the north-central 
waters. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, 
with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach 
from near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 20N140W. This set of 
northwest swell is forecast to usher in seas of 12 ft and greater
to the far northern waters at that same time.