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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 141607

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.


A trough extends from Colombia near 07N78W to 04N80W to 06N86W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N86W to 06N106W then resumes near
05N125W and continues beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is active within 200 nm off the coast of Colombia, and 
from 03N to 12N between 98W and 118W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 120W and


Fresh to strong N gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with rough seas to 9 ft. These gap winds are 
gradually diminishing as high pressure that was over the western 
Gulf of Mexico for the past couple of days continues to shift 
eastward. A weak cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle
to moderate N to NW winds are ahead of the front and along the
the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with 5-7 ft seas in NW swell.
Light to gentle winds and seas in the 4-5 ft range are ongoing
elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure over the Gulf of 
Mexico shifts east. Farther north, fresh to strong NW winds and 
NW swell will follow the cold front moving across Baja 
California Norte. The front will dissipate by Mon, but NW swell 
of 8 to 9 ft will reach as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by early 
Mon, the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon night, before subsiding 
below 8 ft through Tue night. Looking ahead, moderate winds and 
seas will persist across the Mexican offshore waters Wed and Thu.


Fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region and while winds have diminshed to fresh speeds in
the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 5 to 9 ft off of the Papagayo area
and 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are active along the Pacific coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and the coast of Nicaragua through tonight, pulsing to near- 
gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 
Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into Tue evening. 
The same pressure gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh
N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Elsewhere, 
winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.
Meanwhile, rough seas generated in the Gulf of Papagayo will 
continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador through late today. 


A cold front extends from Baja California Norte to 25N129W
followed by NW swell generating seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds are behind the front reaching to 20N. The
greadient between the subtropical ridge and a couple of surface
trough with active convection breaking the ITCZ is supporting a
belt of moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 06N to 20N W of
110W with 5-8 ft seas. A plume of fresh winds and 8 to 9 ft seas
originating from the gap winds events off Mexico and Central 
America are from 06N to 13N E of 115W. Farther south, southerly 
swell to 8 ft is cross the equator between 120W and 130W.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken while moving 
eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California 
today, then dissipate. High pressure will build in the wake of 
the front, supporting fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 
130W. The swell following the front will subside a little as it
propagates equatorward through Mon reaching as far south of 10N.
The large S to SW cross-equatorial swell will interact with the
northerly swell and create combined seas of up to 10 ft between 
08N to 22N west of 115W. Added to this mix will include a 
component of shorter period wind waves from the fresh trade wind
flow to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N to 15N 
between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of fresh to 
strong NE to E winds and rough seas from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W 
and as far south as 08N. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish Wed and Thu.