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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 111602

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres is centered near 15.8N 111.4W at
11/1500 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to
35 kt. Associated seas are estimated at 8-10 ft. No organized deep
convection is near the exposed center. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at and the Forecast 
Advisory at for 
more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N106W, then resumes 
from 12N112W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 
03N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 85W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 100W and 


Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Post Tropical Cyclone Andres, located south of the Revillagigedo

A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. 
Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail offshore of Baja 
California, with gentle moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of 
California, highest in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California, 
highest north of Punta Eugenia, in a moderate NW swell. Seas are 
mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere, higher near the outer fringes of 
Post Tropical Cyclone Andres, impacting the waters south of 
Socorro Island.

For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California this weekend, increasing to fresh to 
strong Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will continue to dominate the 
waters west of Baja California today, with another set arriving 
this weekend. A strong gap wind event is possible in the 
Tehuantepec region Thu through early Sat with building seas.


Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed
long period NW and SW swell, except 5-7 offshore of Ecuador and
to 7 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight 
hours through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly 
swell will impact the waters through today before subsiding, 
with another set arriving Fri, with a larger, reinforcing set 
this weekend.


Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Post Tropical Cyclone Andres, located south of Socorro Island and
just outside of the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary.

A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to
locally fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W
of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly 
swell producing seas of 7-8 ft continues to propagate across the
northern waters N of 25N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-7 ft in a
mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell, reaching
8 ft from 05N to 15N west of 135W.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail 
north of the ITCZ through today. Northerly swell will linger 
north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across
the west-central waters, decaying by midweek. Southerly swell 
crossing the equator will help to maintain seas to 8 ft across 
the southern waters through the early part of the week. Fairly 
tranquil marine conditions are anticipated for the remainder of 
the week into the weekend.