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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070820
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W to
08N90W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N101W to 07N124W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W
and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N
between 78W and 81W, from 05N to 08N between 90W and 94W, from
08N to 10N between 113W and 117W, and from 08N to 10N between
121W and 124W.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm
south of the coasts of Guatemala and Mexico between 100W and
110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted near Baja California 
Sur and Cabo Corrientes, and in the northern Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Haze is 
occurring offshore of southern Mexico due to ongoing agricultural
fires in portions of Central America and Mexico, at times 
potentially reducing visibility.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the 
Tehuantepec region will diminish Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh
winds will affect the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this 
period as a low south-southwest of the area moves west-
northwest. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja 
California Sur and Cabo Corrientes will diminish later today. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop briefly in the 
northern Gulf of California this evening. NW swell with building
seas will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sat, subsiding 
Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate prevail across most the region, 
except for moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo  
region will pulse to strong early Sat and then again early Sun.
Moderate southerly swell is forecast to arrive across the region
Mon and Mon night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge is noted across the waters north of the ITCZ where
gentle to moderate winds prevail, except in the northwest waters
where winds are moderate to locally fresh behind a decaying
frontal boundary. Seas of 7-9 ft are arriving west of this
boundary in NW swell. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long
period northerly and southerly swell prevail elsewhere. Low
pressure 1010 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N101W
with associated convection described above.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the
decaying boundary freshening winds across the waters north of the
ITCZ. Winds may diminish somewhat early next week as the pressure
gradient weakens. The are of low pressure may move from southwest
of the Tehuantepec region westward south of the Revillagigedo 
Islands through early next week. NW swell in the 7-9 ft range 
will spread east- southeast just south of 30N through the end of 
the week. A larger northerly swell will propagate south of 30N 
Fri night through the weekend into early next week with seas 
building to 8-11 ft mainly north of 22N between 120W and 135W. 
Background northerly swell combined with the freshening trades 
will build seas to the 7-9 ft range across the west-central 
waters this weekend.

$$
Lewitsky