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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 160956

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


A trough extends from Panama near 08N82W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N95W to 07N110W, and from 07N125W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 08N between 
85W and 90W, from 08N to 10N between 105W and 110W, from 05N to
10N between 120W and 125W, and within 60 nm either side of ITCZ
between 125W and 140W.


A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NW winds
across the central Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds persist 
off the coast of Baja California to Punta Eugenia. This wind 
pattern continues between the subtropical ridge over the eastern 
Pacific along about 130W, and lower pressure over central Mexico.
NW swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft continues to move through 
the Baja near and offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas of 6 ft or less are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja 
California will diminish through late today. NW swell of 7 to 10 
ft will continue to move across the offshore waters of Baja 
California and the Revillagigedo Islands, then gradually subside 
below 8 ft through late Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Wed. Wind and seas 
will diminish further through Sat as high pressure weakens west 
of the area. 


Fresh gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region and
into the southern Nicaragua waters, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh
easterly winds then continue farther offshore of Papagayo, to
beyond 95W, where seas are up to 7 ft. Moderate N winds continue
in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 03N. Light 
to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted 
elsewhere, except 7 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through 
southeast of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, easterly gap winds will pulse to strong across the
Gulf of Papagayo region and most of the coastal waters of
Nicaragua early this morning, then diminish to moderate to fresh
through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the 
Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight. Elsewhere, 
moderate winds and seas will persist through late Wed. Winds will
diminish further through Sat as a weak pressure gradient 
develops across the local region and the western Caribbean. 


A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,
covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds north of 07N and west of 110W. Fresh winds,
rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active 
near a 1011 mb surface low persists along the ITCZ near 07N122W, 
supported by a mid to upper trough to its northwest. NW swell of
8 to 10 ft continues to move through the regional waters, and is
reaching as far south as 10N, mainly west of 120W. Southern 
hemispheric S to SW swell is mixing with the northerly swell and 
with the trade wind flow. 

The northerly and southerly swell groups will continue to merge 
along with shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to 
fresh trade winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas 
from 08N to 20N west of 110W. Farther east, the plume of E winds 
and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish, but 
lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 7 to 9 ft south of 
12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will subside 
through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas in the 
trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week.